Europe, Referendum & Brexit (formerly Europe..IN or OUT??)

Trying to go for Funniest Poster 2018 I see

(28-07-2018 11:19 )terence Wrote:  ^i reckon farage would love a second referendum to be sucessful, so he could get his job and party back.

I just don't see a second referendum,peoples vote,best of 3 votes or whatever one wants to call it happening at least in the near future tbh purely because the vote back in 2016 kind of opened Pandora's Box that the political class & the government didn't see coming & didn't like it,unfortunately that box just doesn't look like closing.I do however see a General Election a lot more likely which may give parties the opportunity to set out their stalls as regards possible relationship with the EU.Seeing as how badly & incompetently the Tories are in the negotiations & Labour's constant back-tracking in their policies with regards to Brexit (rumours are they are prepared to accept freedom of movement which flies in the face in Labour heartlands that voted leave in order to reduce immigration) see's a more likely window of opportunity for UKIP & Farage to make a comeback.The real problem for political parties who would choose to thwart Brexit in their manifesto pledges is that it could leave the opportunity of possible Far-Right parties (that make UKIP look like choirboys) to exploit disgruntled voters.

In theory should a 2nd vote get called & a leave vote wins does that suddenly make the government any more competent in negotiations (whether it be Tories or Labour) & fully get behind making Brexit actually happen & would it get staunch hardcore remainers to accept Brexit.of course it wouldn't.With regards to the vote on leaving the EU that ship has already sailed 2 years ago & if a 2nd vote is called then it should be how we leave the EU where we either A)Accept the proposed deal offered or B)Leave without a deal.Remaining in EU as a 3rd option shouldn't be on the ballot paper.

Interesting report on a study from The Observer/Guardian showing that since the referendum more than 100 seats in the United Kingdom have swung from Leave to Remain now giving Remain a majority of constituencies in Parliament. I will point out that the study was commissioned by Better for Britain who are against Brexit and Hope not Hate. That being said the people carrying out the study based their data on polling from "Right Leaning" YouGov and census information from the Office of National Statistics and it is the same group that came up with a Leave majority of constituencies in 2016.

It is known that most MPs in Parliament are against Brexit but fear voting against it as it will likely result in them losing their seat but that no longer is the case. Will it really change anything? Probably not but it is another sign that the country's attitude towards leaving is changing and fast

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201...are_btn_tw

Well both negotiating sides did admit one thing that the whole "process is a joke" this week.
That having being said, I would say now that if we were to crash out of the EU on March 2019 without a deal struck neither side - us or the EU - will have any real credibility gained and our trade plans will be in tatters because we would be stuck in limbo and probably will be stuck in limbo for quite a few years because then we would have to resolve this before any deals can be struck.

Mrs May's leadership qualities would be in tatters for failing to create any real sensible and credible deal that the EU would accept and I fear any subsequent Government whether it be Tory, Labour or indeed even a coalition Government would still find the Eu standing firm against any proposal from Westminster and the whole process would start all over again. To be honest IF this Government had been united instead of being so divided and the houses of Parliament and Lords were working AS ONE to achieve a common goal a deal would have signed sealed and handed to Brussels a long time ago. Instead the whole process has reduced this government and this country to being little more than being EU lapdogs. A hell of a lot of work is needed now to get any real credibility back and two years wasted by infighting within in those who hold the power of Government.
Any General election held now will probably result in that Government being handed a weakened negotiating position to begin with.

^ If the Government had been united, Cameron would never have called the Referendum in the first place. It was a typical insular move from a politician obsessed with the Westminster bubble. Brexit was the result of an itch the Tory party could never scratch. It still hasn't offered them any relief.

This whole clusterfuck should be forever laid at their door. To try and spread blame by oh everyone should have rallied round is facile. Democracy doesn't shut off just because you've had your say.

May's negotiation tactic seems to have slipped to simple brinkmanship a long time ago. She is praying the limited timescale available will now bring the concessions she wants out of the EU. Such was always her limited hand.

^Hope I raised valid points

^ Most definitely you do mate - as always. The way you question things constantly is commendable. In no way am I knocking your contribution. Our perspective on things like this however, leads us to see events differently is all.

(12-08-2018 09:38 )babelover48 Wrote:  ^Hope I raised valid points

Certainly what you said about Theresa May's leadership credentials would be in tatters, as well as our trade plans under a hard Brexit, if we were to crash out with no deal with The EU we would be the only country in the world with no trade agreements. You may also be right that the negotiations might have to start all over again but I think in order for that to happen The Government would have to withdraw Article 50, which would need to happen before the March 2019 deadline or we crash out completely, I do not know all the specifics.


Where I disagree is the notion that if The Government & Parliament had been united to work as one we would have a deal done. Firstly I would ask united around what? There was no plans made for a Leave vote, no blueprint for what kind of trade agreements we would have, nothing for The Irish border, nothing on intelligence sharing, nothing on being members of EU agencies such as Euratom, it's kind of hard to rally around nothing. This feeds into the point I have made about when other countries hold referendums they have public consultations to decide what goes on the ballot, impact assessments of the different sectors of our economy and society under different agreements (Norway model, Canadian FTA) should of been carried out made clear to the public and they would of chosen which one and then the referendum could be carried out with the preferred choice i.e Remian vs Leave with Canadian FTA

Secondly both the Government and The Opposition are committed to Brexit, the are very few times in our history when both sides are in agreement this much. It's ironic that Blair and his ilk were seen as Red Tories yet with Brexit under Corbyn Labour is more in line with the Tories that it has ever been

As for the House of Lords, one of the outcomes of the defeats they inflicted on May's Government was that it gave Parliament more power with the negotiations which was what Brexit was all about, Parliamentary Sovereignty and definitely not all about immigration

^fair point raised mate no offence taken by me where you disagree with me.

I agree we should have been consulted way long before we held the referendum what model should we have followed. When Cameron announced the decision that the referendum was held, there was no real consultation done both nationally (and locally as well) and I think we were led blindly that were voting for something as a national decision but had no real basis behind it. This i where I fear we are probably staring into an abyss of real uncertain in the future

The one thing we can definitely agree on is that it is going to be a clusterfuck at best

Should be fun