Europe, Referendum & Brexit (formerly Europe..IN or OUT??)

One wonders how much smoother negotiations would have been if a charm offensive by Fernanda would have helped matters beforehand

^ I'm not sure how much anyone would be able to negotiate on the matters at hand with fernanda there.

Aslong as it doesnt lead to a civil war then it will be a win scenario we will all be fucked either way

tell Amazon to fuck off and google, pointless having the cunts here if they can fiddle to pay virtual fuck all tax....dont give me all that about the employment they bring in...99% of workers need to claim top up benefits to survive. Meanwhile our town centres die a death burdened by rising rates and taxes

(11-08-2018 23:31 )southsidestu Wrote:  Interesting report on a study from The Observer/Guardian showing that since the referendum more than 100 seats in the United Kingdom have swung from Leave to Remain now giving Remain a majority of constituencies in Parliament. I will point out that the study was commissioned by Better for Britain who are against Brexit and Hope not Hate. That being said the people carrying out the study based their data on polling from "Right Leaning" YouGov and census information from the Office of National Statistics and it is the same group that came up with a Leave majority of constituencies in 2016.

It is known that most MPs in Parliament are against Brexit but fear voting against it as it will likely result in them losing their seat but that no longer is the case. Will it really change anything? Probably not but it is another sign that the country's attitude towards leaving is changing and fast

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201...are_btn_tw

Aside from from the whole taking polls with a pinch of salt argument as 'they always get it wrong' & so for a poll to hold water or be taken remotely seriously then the pollster/or persons carrying out the poll & on behalf of whom & the demographic of the voter has to be scrutinized.I would have a lot more belief in pollster that is politically neutral & has no leaning in either side of an argument on the subject their are polling.If YouGov as you claim are as 'right leaning' as you say why would left-wing organizations like 'Best for Britain' & 'Hope Not Hate' (who funded this poll) touch them with a bargepole.YouGov's former president Peter Kellner (who retired in 2016) admitted on a political programme a month or so ago he was a staunch Remainer who believes we need a 2nd vote,he is also a columnist in the Guardian as well.YouGov 'right-leaning' methinks not.

In truth this Observer/Guardian poll needs to be treated with the biggest dollop of cynicism it deserves because the very poll funders 'Best for Britain' & 'Hope not Hate' aren't just staunch anti-Brexit protesters they have also been recipients of EU funding in the past.As a stickler for fine detail when analyzing the statistics of this 'Seizmic Shift in Public Opinion on Brexit' apparently all 632 constituencies were studied & 15,000 people interviewed so doing the maths (15,000 /632 =23.7). And so apparently with approx 24 people asked in every constituency in theory they come to the grand conclusion most leave voters are now a willing to vote remain now,leave constituencies are now remain & remain will win a 2nd vote by 53% to 47%.And besides does anyone know someone (who may know someone else) that has ever been interviewed for a poll ever,as I haven't.

A better reflection of how public moods are on Brexit rather than reading some biased polling that suit someones political agenda would be to ask friends,family,work colleagues ie people in the real world rather than some Bot & for me political opinion hasn't really changed with the of people I speak to (I do speak to quite a lot of people in my job).

Whatever political persuasions the majority of people would agree that the Government's handling of Brexit are an absolute shambles (& Labour wouldn't fare any better) with no preparations for any eventuality,remain supporting civil servants negotiating Brexit suggesting there isn't any real political will to leave the EU.

(12-08-2018 13:38 )gunnar Wrote:  ^ I'm not sure how much anyone would be able to negotiate on the matters at hand with fernanda there.

May would give her a hard time....the rest will be playing pocket billards

(12-08-2018 17:34 )Jack the Nipper Wrote:  Aside from from the whole taking polls with a pinch of salt argument as 'they always get it wrong' & so for a poll to hold water or be taken remotely seriously then the pollster/or persons carrying out the poll & on behalf of whom & the demographic of the voter has to be scrutinized.I would have a lot more belief in pollster that is politically neutral & has no leaning in either side of an argument on the subject their are polling.If YouGov as you claim are as 'right leaning' as you say why would left-wing organizations like 'Best for Britain' & 'Hope Not Hate' (who funded this poll) touch them with a bargepole.YouGov's former president Peter Kellner (who retired in 2016) admitted on a political programme a month or so ago he was a staunch Remainer who believes we need a 2nd vote,he is also a columnist in the Guardian as well.YouGov 'right-leaning' methinks not.

In truth this Observer/Guardian poll needs to be treated with the biggest dollop of cynicism it deserves because the very poll funders 'Best for Britain' & 'Hope not Hate' aren't just staunch anti-Brexit protesters they have also been recipients of EU funding in the past.As a stickler for fine detail when analyzing the statistics of this 'Seizmic Shift in Public Opinion on Brexit' apparently all 632 constituencies were studied & 15,000 people interviewed so doing the maths (15,000 /632 =23.7). And so apparently with approx 24 people asked in every constituency in theory they come to the grand conclusion most leave voters are now a willing to vote remain now,leave constituencies are now remain & remain will win a 2nd vote by 53% to 47%.And besides does anyone know someone (who may know someone else) that has ever been interviewed for a poll ever,as I haven't.

A better reflection of how public moods are on Brexit rather than reading some biased polling that suit someones political agenda would be to ask friends,family,work colleagues ie people in the real world rather than some Bot & for me political opinion hasn't really changed with the of people I speak to (I do speak to quite a lot of people in my job).

Whatever political persuasions the majority of people would agree that the Government's handling of Brexit are an absolute shambles (& Labour wouldn't fare any better) with no preparations for any eventuality,remain supporting civil servants negotiating Brexit suggesting there isn't any real political will to leave the EU.

I fully accept that it was funded by two organisations that are anti Brexit, I do make that point so it can be known to take these findings with a pinch of salt as I do but the research itself was carried out by a third party who previously came up with a Leave majority using the same methodology which includes data from the ONS who are independent, so whilst it can be taken with some skepticism it cannot be written off altogether

As for Peter Kellner's politics they are irrelevant as you pointed out, he left the organisation 2 yrs ago. Just because he supports remain does not mean he is not right wing and just because he writes for The Guardian does not make him left wing.

The article mentions that the swing is happening in Labour constituencies, given that Brexit is being handled by a Tory government that is finding itself in the grips of the hard right Rees-Mogg lead ERG and we seem to be sleep walking towards a hard Brexit it is not illogical to assume that many Labour Brexiteers are having second thoughts and given as you said that whatever peoples political persuasion they would agree that Brexit is "an absolute shambles with no preparations for any eventuality" I wouldn't blame anyone for having second thoughts

You forgot to mention the part about the organizations responsible for funding the poll 'Britain First' & 'Hope Not Hate' have been recipients of EU funding,so they have more than a vested interest in trying to imply some sort of voter's remorse argument.Coupled with the fact that pollsters often manipulate poll findings by asking 'loaded questions' or asking a certain demographic of voter to get the results they
want.

I'm purely playing Devil's Advocate here but how did you come to the revelation that YouGov is right-wing (or right leaning as you call it) & the ONS is somehow politically neutral in any debate that in someway gives this poll any more or less credibility?.The fact I haven't seen this article debated or aired on any of the news channels today particularly in a period of slow news suggests theirs very little traction in this story even though it was front page news on The Observer & Guardian.

And these so-called Labour Brexiteer's who are having voter's remorse like the article & you imply because the Tories are carrying out Brexit (badly) despite both Labour & Tories standing on identical manifesto's in last years Election regarding Brexit which meant leaving the single market & the customs union.

And not wishing to sound like some broken record but what if magically a 2nd referendum was called & the leave vote won again would that somehow make the Government (be it Tories or Labour) any more competent when negotiating Brexit & will remainers finally accept Brexit?in a word no.

I literally just read that Spurs' Argentinian manager Mauricio Pochettinho has blamed Brexit for Spurs becoming the first Premiership side in history not to sign anyone in the Summer transfer window.Nothing to do with the fact Spurs have a transfer policy or negotiators that make the Governments incompetent brexit negotiator's seem competent or Daniel Levy who implies a wage structure more suited to a Championship club & makes Newcastle's Mike Ashley look like Father Christmas.

I see Pochettinho has already excuses in places for next Summer's transfer windows fiasco where he's going to blame the Falklands.

The thing is when you think about I think am I right in thinking that ex pats living overseas in British Territories were NOT given a say in the original referendum? And if we Did eventually have to hold a second Referendum shouldn't those living in those territories given an opportunity to have their say?