Politics - The Non-Brexit Thread.

^^
Yikes

People called Rupert are often posh entitled privileged twats.

(With exception of Rupert T. Bear)

This is a depressing video.

https://youtu.be/FAJNx1KwPak?si=-1hyoxxPMFavuKH8

I'd say the chances of us actually voting in a party that axtually does something for us is probably still out there somewhere.
Politics in this country seems prettty fucked up way more than it was at the time of the Pandemic, and I still don't think we've really woken up and smelled the coffee properly.

On 10th February Dan Turner was announced as a Reform candidate in the May local elections in Louth. Today he was found guilty on 2 counts of fraud. Reform candidate vetting continues to excel

Something tells me that some people might start wondering How many More will be investigated? And if so will any GE seats won by Reform be under investigation as a result?

Luke Tryl, Director of More in Common UK polling company, has a twitter thread that looks at Reforms continued rise since 2024 general election:


This from our post election briefing is way of looking at just how striking Reform's rise is of those who would currently vote Reform just 42% of them voted for the Party last year. Or looked at another way their vote looks v.similar to a wing of the 2019 Boris Johnson coalition




Reform's growth is changing the nature of its support While Reform 2024 voters are more like to say they back the party on policies & leadership - their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties




You can see it here too - while both Reform's GE voters and their newer voters back the party because of policies on immigration - their new voters are significantly more likely to say they also back the party because they have been let down by traditional mainstream parties.



So what's happened since the election is that Reform has capitalised on the sense of pervasive disillusionment we hear right across the country. Their new voters are even more likely to be frustrated by the status quo (from a high base)



But they are also less aligned with the figures more popular with some of the online right. Reform's new voters have much more negative views of Elon Musk, Tommy Robinson or Donald Trump than Reform 2024 voters.



Another way of looking at it - on policies around immigration and identity Reform's newer voters are very closely aligned with their older voters.



But there are differences. Reform's new voters are more neutral on if net-zero & more likely to worry about far right terror. Both Reform's new and old voters are more likely to sympathise with Ukraine over Russia and believe advancements in women's rights are good - but their newer voters are even more likely to think this.



In many ways it reflects Farage's success at tapping into disillusionment and the demand for change - broadening his base. But it also will pose challenges, his newer supporters are less ideological than Reform's base and more likely to be deterred by anything extreme (with Trump a particular challenge).

This @ObserverUK piece by @RSylvester1 is great on Reform's changing base.

The Observer: Goodbye to the Brexit bad boys - Farage is wooing Gen X woman

Press conference on relationship with EU, following the signing of deal to allow EU Fishing ships to fish in British waters for a further 12 years.

Usual waffle & bollocks from Starmer