General Election 2019

Suddenly - in one sense - the results here in Ni have been thrown into sharp focus! If the DUP do lose seats - still odds against - it is bye bye UK within the next 5 - 15 years! I know ….right??

Thank you Hugh and Steve. Gotta love a good luvvie endorsement.

I never imagined my constituency would go blue. But according to exit poll forecasts it is very likely to do so .

If you are looking for decent election coverage, it is on Euro News! I had high hopes for CNN, but Hala Gorani has screwed that option up - Bianca Nobilo and Julia Chatterley were trying to introduce a level of professionalism into the coverage, but were shouted down by that irksome American woman (and Richard Quest and his bumbling - usually like him on Quest means business)! Caught a glimpse of Andrew Neil with Farage! I don't know which one is worse??

(13-12-2019 01:02 )snookered Wrote:  I never imagined my constituency would go blue. But according to exit poll forecasts it is very likely to do so .

It's too close to call in my neck of the woods too if the Jungle Drums are correct. Since the election was called all I've heard is people who are lifetime Labour voters refusing to vote for a party led by Corbyn.

The man is toxic and has to go.

It is ironic that NI's future was one J Corbyn said would be for us the citizens alone to determine , and that - despite his well known history on the issue of a possible UI, he and the labour party would stay 'neutral' - to now see a conservative and 'unionist' PM jeopardise our place in that very same union!

(13-12-2019 01:08 )Tumble_Drier Wrote:  It's too close to call in my neck of the woods too if the Jungle Drums are correct. Since the election was called all I've heard is people who are lifetime Labour voters refusing to vote for a party led by Corbyn.

The man is toxic and has to go.

but that just shows how dumb those people are that you have spoken to. they're not voting for a party or it's leader, they're voting for their local MP who has their own views and opinions. the PM has a small amount of influence at best. say corbyn stands down after his defeat tomorrow, yet all the candidates standing under him remain, and corbyn is replaced by someone the people you spoke to actually like, what would change? nothing. if they decide to go back to voting labour in a future election then they would likely end up voting for their local labour candidate who stood this year that they avoided voting for. it isn't party vs party or corbyn vs johnson. it's much bigger than that and for some reason people don't seem to understand.

The outlook proves what I’ve thought for the last 3 years, the electorate don’t like having their voices blocked out by the people who they elect. For 3 years they have been told “they didn’t know what they voted for” or “we need a 2nd referendum/people’s vote” or the really good one “the referendum wasn’t binding”. Labour, who had a substantial leave percentage, promised nothing but more referendums and to get a deal then not back the deal. A lot of people are sick and tired of “BREXIT” but also tired of being arrogantly dismissed, one party promises to at least get something going however that turns out whilst Labour promised nothing of the sort. IMO that’s the major reason why the result looks to be going he way it is.

To me this also shows that even at a time where the Conservatives have been it utter disarray over the last 3 years with not knowing what to do with Brexit the people also weren’t sold 100% on Corbyn/Labour and what they offered. Yes he made in roads at the previous election but fell short that was his curtain call, that’s when Labour should have gotten rid of him. If they had done that and honoured the referendum result or offering a guarantee to get a deal then back it I think it’s very plausible they could have won this election, especially with that manifesto. But ultimately they choose to stick with Corbyn which was a massive mistake, too many questions marks over too many issues with him for a lot of voters. Both the major choices weren’t great for a lot of people, like choosing which testicle you’d like removed with a rusty knife and without anaesthetic but this outcome I can’t say I’m overly surprised at it, like the EU referendum 3 and a half years ago......the people spoke with there vote.

the bad guys are winning.

It will be interesting to see how this will pan out in the Tory party going forward. With a thumping majority Boris does not need to do what May had to do and appease the hard line Brextremists in the party. Everyone will get behind him in a way those in The Republican party who opposed Trump have. Rick Perry said he was a cancer on conservatism only to serve in his cabinet, Lindsay Graham said nominating Trump would be like shooting themselves in the head & if we nominate Trump voters would destroy us and we will deserve it, now he's his biggest cheerleader.

If he wants, Boris can send Brexit cheerleaders in his cabinet like Patel, Raab, Leadsom & Rees Mogg to the wilderness and they will like it because he is the man that with a majority of 86 & a swing of 177 over Labour he has all but secured the next election for the Tories as well, he's Thatcher Mark II, he's electoral gold dust. He threw the DUP under the under the bus with the WA agreement he can throw the ERG under the bus with Brexit as well. Boris' WA is a deal that Nigel Farage has said if it comes up in the EU parliament he would vote against it and that is a deal that has been made when the ERG tail has been wagging The Tory dog, tonight Boris cut the tail. What he comes up with going forward will be what many Europhiles consider Brexit in name only. I stress if he wants, he may continue do go along the hard right Europhobic route because it delivered him this result but if tonight has taught him anything, he can say and do whatever he wants and get away with it. So why would a man who wrote two letters for The Telegraph one backing remain & who has previously been pro single market abandon that? Boris never believed in The Brexit project, it was all about making him PM.

As for Labour, Corbyn must go. His supporters will say it was all about Brexit and that caving to the centre of the party on a 2nd Referendum cost them this election. That will of course cause them damage as Labour lose votes to The Brexit Party in the north and the Tories take those seats but political journalist online have been reporting for a while that candidates and volunteers have been telling them that on the doorstep a dislike of Corbyn has been as prevalent as Brexit if not more so. England is not a socialist country, Brexit wasn't the issue with Michael Foot in 83 or Kinnock in 92, England will never elect a far left Labour with a radical socialist agenda.

Whilst England may be not be socialist the United Kingdom as a whole is generally left wing, the popular vote for the left wing parties tends to outweigh the ring wing vote. In 2015 Cameron showed it was possible to get a majority with 36% of the vote, I don't now what the share of the popular vote for the left will be tonight but in 2017 it was 54%. The numbers are there, a good Labour Party that has progressive policies but reaches across the aisle with some small C conservatism will always win the election. I know the left even without Iraq hated the policies of Blair but no matter how much better your radical transformative agenda may be than left wing centrism you cannot deliver it if you are not in Government. Honourable failure helps nobody other than to satisfy your moral purity but I ask you, what can those who are homeless, using foodbanks & suffering from cuts to frontline services do with your moral purity?

The shortest way to victory for the left is to form an electoral pact in the next election and stand down where the other is second to the Tories and also hope that people in areas like Blythe voted BP are a one off and come back to the fold. First Past the Post has stifled democracy in this country for decades and Labour have been complicit in it, how can you be for the many not the few when you support a system that sees Governments elected with majorities whilst having a third of the vote? The fact that Labour has yet to back proportional representation can only mean one thing. They would rather a system where someone like Boris or any other Tory can get an overall majority than share power with the Lib Dems because it means they can get an overall majority. Which means they oppose the Tories but on their terms only. For the many not the few * but only when we decide what is for the many