General Election 2019

(13-12-2019 02:16 )southsidestu Wrote:  It will be interesting to see how this will pan out in the Tory party going forward. With a thumping majority Boris does not need to do what May had to do and appease the hard line Brextremists in the party. Everyone will get behind him in a way those in The Republican party who opposed Trump have. Rick Perry said he was a cancer on conservatism only to serve in his cabinet, Lindsay Graham said nominating Trump would be like shooting themselves in the head & if we nominate Trump voters would destroy us and we will deserve it, now he's his biggest cheerleader.

If he wants, Boris can send Brexit cheerleaders in his cabinet like Patel, Raab, Leadsom & Rees Mogg to the wilderness and they will like it because he is the man that with a majority of 86 & a swing of 177 over Labour he has all but secured the next election for the Tories as well, he's Thatcher Mark II, he's electoral gold dust. He threw the DUP under the under the bus with the WA agreement he can throw the ERG under the bus with Brexit as well. Boris' WA is a deal that Nigel Farage has said if it comes up in the EU parliament he would vote against it and that is a deal that has been made when the ERG tail has been wagging The Tory dog, tonight Boris cut the tail. What he comes up with going forward will be what many Europhiles consider Brexit in name only. I stress if he wants, he may continue do go along the hard right Europhobic route because it delivered him this result but if tonight has taught him anything, he can say and do whatever he wants and get away with it. So why would a man who wrote two letters for The Telegraph one backing remain & who has previously been pro single market abandon that? Boris never believed in The Brexit project, it was all about making him PM.

As for Labour, Corbyn must go. His supporters will say it was all about Brexit and that caving to the centre of the party on a 2nd Referendum cost them this election. That will of course cause them damage as Labour lose votes to The Brexit Party in the north and the Tories take those seats but political journalist online have been reporting for a while that candidates and volunteers have been telling them that on the doorstep a dislike of Corbyn has been as prevalent as Brexit if not more so. England is not a socialist country, Brexit wasn't the issue with Michael Foot in 83 or Kinnock in 92, England will never elect a far left Labour with a radical socialist agenda.

Whilst England may be not be socialist the United Kingdom as a whole is generally left wing, the popular vote for the left wing parties tends to outweigh the ring wing vote. In 2015 Cameron showed it was possible to get a majority with 36% of the vote, I don't now what the share of the popular vote for the left will be tonight but in 2017 it was 54%. The numbers are there, a good Labour Party that has progressive policies but reaches across the aisle with some small C conservatism will always win the election. I know the left even without Iraq hated the policies of Blair but no matter how much better your radical transformative agenda may be than left wing centrism you cannot deliver it if you are not in Government. Honourable failure helps nobody other than to satisfy your moral purity but I ask you, what can those who are homeless, using foodbanks & suffering from cuts to frontline services do with your moral purity?

The shortest way to victory for the left is to form an electoral pact in the next election and stand down where the other is second to the Tories and also hope that people in areas like Blythe voted BP are a one off and come back to the fold. First Past the Post has stifled democracy in this country for decades and Labour have been complicit in it, how can you be for the many not the few when you support a system that sees Governments elected with majorities whilst having a third of the vote? The fact that Labour has yet to back proportional representation can only mean one thing. They would rather a system where someone like Boris or any other Tory can get an overall majority than share power with the Lib Dems because it means they can get an overall majority. Which means they oppose the Tories but on their terms only. For the many not the few * but only when we decide what is for the many

Here is some counter analysis to what I have just suggested on how Boris will run The Tories

^the dup have no say anymore. 1 good thing?

(13-12-2019 03:02 )terence Wrote:  ^the dup have no say anymore. 1 good thing?

Indeed they overplayed their hand I feel and now they have been thoroughly shafted by Boris, he simply doesn't need them anymore, and if he doesn't need them he doesn't give a flying fuck about them.

The DUP didn't want NI to be cut adrift or different from the rest of the "Union" (except on abortion, gay marriage etc) and now their fears will come through, they will be completely abandoned, forgotten by the Conservatives and that does put a smile on my face.

Just to add, that is some very interesting and thought provoking analysis from southsidestu.

Indeed the idea of Arlene Foster having that smirk wiped off her face will let me sleep better toinght

(13-12-2019 02:08 )terence Wrote:  the bad guys are winning.

Just think of tonight as the ending to Infinity War, the bad guy won and all hope was lost. But then Endgame came 5 years later where the good guys turned it around, undid all the bad and restored the universe to normality.

Apologies if you don't get my references

(13-12-2019 03:16 )Stemmw Wrote:  Just to add, that is some very interesting and thought provoking analysis from southsidestu.

That's very kind of you to say, lets see if any of it holds true going forward

Alistair Campbell hitting out with a fact that in part backs up what I am saying with regards to the Labour Party, that if Boris serves a full 5 year term in will mean that Blair will be the only Labour leader to win a majority in 50 years. The last being Wilson in 66 (at last something good to come out of England that year), so its actually 48 yrs but you get the point.

So did Boris lose his seat?

The beast of Bolsover loses his seat. The commons won't be the same without Dennis Skinner, he is only 87, I thought he would hang on until he was at least 100.