Europe, Referendum & Brexit (formerly Europe..IN or OUT??)

(12-09-2019 23:13 )southsidestu Wrote:  What is a freudian slip Alex ?

How many more pacts we will see like this? I cannot see Farage and Johnson ever working together in a Govenment

(12-09-2019 19:36 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  It occurs to me that the Government was absolutely committed to retaining the No Deal threat, but not for the reasons it claimed.

They said they needed No Deal on the table to give them a credible negotiating position with the EU. But what if that's not true? What if they knew perfectly well that there is only one deal forthcoming from the EU and it is some minor variation of the deal that May already negotiated?

In that case, they needed No Deal on the table, but not as a threat to the EU. They needed it as a threat to Parliament and - by extension - as a threat to all of us.

What if their intention all along was to bring us to the brink of a crash-out and then put a 'Boris Deal' to a vote in Parliament (the Boris Deal being just the May Deal with a couple of apostrophes changed)? Boris would then have been in a no-lose position. EITHER Parliament votes for his deal -- which is conceivable, as they would have spent months warning of No Deal armageddon -- OR they vote against it. But in that case, Parliament -- not Johnson -- would own the consequences of the crash-out. The Government's position would then have been: you wanted a deal; we brought you a deal; you voted against it; so this is now all your fault.

In this scenario, the proroguing of Parliament was just a ploy to prevent the opposition from passing any bill that could take No Deal off the table. Their miscalculation was the fact that this was such a breathtaking over-reach by the Government that it actually galvanised the opposition, the Speaker and moderate Tories so much that they managed to pass the Benn Bill in the limited window that they had available.

So this is all now moot and theoretical, because the plan didn't work. But what if it's true? Could we really have a Government willing to hold its own Parliament and people to ransom, just to secure its next election? I honestly think we do.

In this scenario, the proroguing of Parliament was just a ploy to prevent the opposition from passing any bill that could take No Deal off the table. Their miscalculation was the fact that this was such a breathtaking over-reach by the Government that it actually galvanised the opposition, the Speaker and moderate Tories so much that they managed to pass the Benn Bill in the limited window that they had available.

It certainly was a miscalculation that backfired spectacularly and now I feel the proroguing hasn't done Johnson any favours. Barnier won't re - open talks (when clearly there hasn't been any between this admininistration and the EU - and who do we believe more on this the Govt or the EU?), and more than likely he himself probably miscalculated the damage he has inflicted on himself by doing so and the level of strength of opposition not only from within by other MP's.
I cannot see how any hashed together deal can get through Parliament even if it does borrow bits from May's deal which was rejected 3 times!!

Plus there is this bridge to NI. This will make Trump's wall look like a 24 hour job, but how does he expect it to withstand strong winds, rough seas and not to mention possible terrorist attacks and stopping IRA terrorists sneaking across it to attack the mainland when it is likely to have to be kept secure 24 hours a day & 7 days a week in probably the most inhospitable weather in the winter months? It will cost way more than the £15bn he quoted just to build it, it will cost billions more just bloody maintain the thing!! There are probably enough white elephants in the country atm without him adding to them!!

^^^ the problem is they were found out by the 21 tory mp's who kept asking them for assurances they were going for a deal and they didnt i mean amber rudd only
got a one page summary

the fact they keep saying they are giving the EU ideas about the backstop and the EU saying they havent should ring alarm bells

Some reports today suggesting that the DUP might be softening their red lines in the hope of finding a deal. Probably no coincidence that this is after a poll saying that a majority in NI would vote for reunification with the Republic if a vote was held today. Also reports that Johnson is increasing the number of people in the team trying to find a way to do a deal since he lost control of Parliament and won't be allowed a No Deal exit.

I wonder how much stronger chance there would be of a deal if Northern & Southern Ireland WERE reunited?

(13-09-2019 10:26 )babelover48 Wrote:  I wonder how much stronger chance there would be of a deal if Northern & Southern Ireland WERE reunited?

I'm not sure if you are joking or not

If NI was reunited with the Republic there would be no need for a backstop and The Good Friday Agreement would have been replaced by whatever terms were agree for the reunification.

The EU therefore would not be worried about those things nor would we.

The instransigent members of the ERG would no doubt still be complaining and The Labour Party and others would still want to nail down acceptable terms for a future relationship with the EU but it would be easier as a significant barrier would have been removed.

I've a better idea. Scotland becomes independent and, with the benefit of Boris's useful bridge, NI joins us to form North UK. Then we can do our own deal with the EU.

With the removal of the SNP from Westminster Boris will have a majority again to force no-deal through the Commons for South UK.

Solves everything

^ Agreed on one condition - Yorkshire joins you and Sir Geoffrey is President

(13-09-2019 13:26 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  I've a better idea. Scotland becomes independent and, with the benefit of Boris's useful bridge, NI joins us to form North UK. Then we can do our own deal with the EU.

With the removal of the SNP from Westminster Boris will have a majority again to force no-deal through the Commons for South UK.

Solves everything

I have thought this for a while now! I would go for what would be a 'confederate'?? arrangement with an independent Scotland, rather than a United Ireland personally - yes we would be a (very) junior partner! Independence for NI is clearly unsustainable in all circumstances, and the only other option a unionist (small u) like myself would countenance, would be a nine county independent Ulster (ironically advocated some years ago by a staunch republican - Bernadette Devlin!!) A solution espoused by a republican, and seen as being plausible by a unionist! whatever next?

(13-09-2019 13:37 )SecretAgent Wrote:  ^ Agreed on one condition - Yorkshire joins you and Sir Geoffrey is President

He can apply for asylum like everyone else, but we're making no promises