RE: UFC
Lightweight
I don't know about you, but no other division in the sport has me more excited for 2011 than the ridiculously deep 155-pound weight class in the UFC. Before the year even ends, we'll know who the next contender for the UFC gold is, and on New Year's Day we'll find out who the final WEC champion will meet in a title unifcation clash somewhere down the line.
The scariest part of the lightweight division is that there are fighter who would up the ante even more competing outside of the UFC at this moment, something I believe will remain that way through the next year. Talents like Gilbert Melendez, Eddie Alvarez, Shinya Aoki and Tatsuya Kawajiri would all be impressive additions to the already bonkers lineup assembled in the UFC, but the likelihood that we'll see any of those stars in the UFC this coming year is minimal; contracts, championship clauses and commitment to Japanese MMA are some of the hurdles that will not be cleared... at least not this year.
That being said, there is no greater display of roster riches than the UFC lightweight division, so here is our look at what 2011 could offer.
UFC Champion: Frankie Edgar
I really don't care about admitting this: I love Frankie Edgar and think it is awesome that he is the UFC lightweight champion. He is proof that hard work and dedication pay off, and that you don't have to be the biggest name - or biggest fighter - to be champion. His two wins over B.J. Penn are enough for him to earn Fighter of the Year in my books.
Though he's already put the belt on the line once and came away still holding the gold, Edgar's next outing will be the most daunting of his career; a rematch with the only man to defeat him thus far, Gray Maynard, that will test not only his evolution as a fighter, but also his mental toughness in getting over the memories of his lone professional defeat.
Edgar is a slightly heavier version of current WEC / UFC Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz; both have exceptional footwork that helps them land-and-leave in the striking game, while their wrestling background gives them an outstanding base on both offence and defence. Even though many suggested a move to 145 would be beneficial for Edgar, the New Jersey native is proof that you don't need to cut a great deal of weight to be successful. In fact, dropping only a few pounds to make the lightweight limit allows Edgar to maintain his incredible conditioning without giving up anything in the speed and power categories.
Perhaps a few more fighters should follow the lead of the lightweight champion.
WEC Champion: Ben Henderson
"Smooth" gets second billing simply because Edgar is universally recognized as the top lightweight in the world, while Henderson, unfortunately, is believed to be holding a second-rate title and not at the same talent level as the elite fighters in the UFC.
Before he gets the chance to prove he belongs in the conversation with the best 155-pound fighters in the world, Henderson must defend his WEC strap in front of a partisan crowd in Glendale, Arizona at WEC 53 against Anthony Pettis. The fight will be a "home game" for Henderson who trains at The Lab in Glendale, but it will also be as stiff a test as he's faced to date; Pettis is on a roll and brings a well-rounded and underrated arsenal into the cage.
There is an added reward for winning this bout as well, as the victor has been promised a place opposite the reigning UFC lightweight champion to unify the two titles. After hearing all year that he's not worthy of being in the Top 10 in the division, you can be sure that the chance to collect a win in front of his friends and family while earning an opportunity to prove the critics wrong will motivate Henderson that much more come mid-December.
The Challengers
Gray Maynard has to be licking his chops right now.
"The Bully" handily beat Edgar when they met two years ago and he's maintained an unbeaten record through the first eleven fights of his MMA career. A teammate of Rashad Evans at Michigan State, Maynard is the prototypical collegiate wrestler-turned-mixed martial artist, relying on his suffocating ground game and steadily improving boxing to impose his will on each opponent. While the approach sometimes sacrifices style for substance and has earned Maynard more than a few "Bronx Cheers," the Xtreme Couture product has beaten everyone the UFC has place before him, including dominating perennial contender Kenny Florian prior to Edgar's second meeting with Penn. He'll get his chance at the gold on New Year's Day, facing off with Edgar for a second time in the main event of UFC 125: Resolution.
While Ben Henderson sits as the WEC champion right now, that could all change before next year begins, as Anthony Pettis squares off with "Smooth" on December 16th at WEC 53. Training out of Duke Roufus' gym in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Pettis has enjoyed a breakthrough year in 2010, and would like nothing more than to cap it off with a championship victory. An inventive striker with slept-on skills on the ground, Pettis has finished his last three fights in impressive fashion, choking out both Shane Roller and Alex Karalexis after knocking out Danny Castillo with a highlight reel headkick. After earning a boost in recognition from being featured on MTV's World of Jenks earlier this year, this is a prime opportunity for Pettis to capitalize on that momentum and catapult himself into the conversation at the top of the lightweight division.
Though we may not ever see him compete in the lightweight division again, no discussion of the possible contenders for the crown is complete with mentioning B.J. Penn. Arguably the best lightweight to ever compete, Penn looked far better in his last outing at 170 than he did in 2010 as a lightweight, which has led many to conclude his future rests in the welterweight division. That being said, a focused and motivated Penn is capable of a dominant run through the 155-pound division if he ever makes his return, so while he is currently lined up against Jon Fitch, don't rule out seeing "The Prodigy" back in the lightweight ranks at some point in 2011.
You've gotta feel for George Sotiropoulos a little; the guy has won seven-straight in the Octagon, including three consecutive wins over quality opponents, but he stil can't buy a title shot. Due to the merger with the WEC, a potential championship bout has been bumped by the scheduled title unification tilt, leaving Sotiropoulos to face Dennis Siver in the meantime. While not necessarily as formidable a foe as the UFC could have thrown at the former TUF 6 competitor in the company's return to Australia, anything can happen and a loss would be an unfortunate blow to the impressive Aussie's current climb up the ladder.
Despite losing his last fight, Evan Dunham remains in the thick of things in the lightweight division, partially because a whole lot of people feel he deserved the decision over Sean Sherk at UFC 119. It was the first loss of his career, and one Dunham will look to rebound from as he headlines UFC Fight for the Troops 2 opposite Kenny Florian. More than any other current UFC lightweight, the crowded situation in the division might benefit Dunham most. A win over Florian will certainly show he belongs in the upper echelon, but with a couple of challengers ahead of him in the pecking order, Dunham should be able to add more seasoning to his skill set over the coming year.
The aforementioned Sean Sherk remains in the conversation, at least for now, as he won an exceptionally close decision over Dunham in September and is a former lightweight champion. Regardless of your thoughts on the decision from UFC 119, Sherk is still a tough out for anyone in the division, especially if he decides to use his wrestling again; like many wrestlers, Sherk has fallen in love with his boxing and eschewed the ground game that helped him get to the top of the mountain in the first place. It will be interesting to see who the UFC pairs the former champion up with in early 2011, as Sherk could play spoiler to some championship dreams and go on a run of his own with the right matchups.
Just as George Sotiropoulos has been pushed back in the peaking order, so too has Jim Miller. One half of the New Jersey-based Fighting Miller Brothers, a five-fight winning streak has moved Miller no close to title contention due to the crowded situation in the lightweight division. He has a chance to run that streak to six before the year is out, facing upstart Charles Oliveira at UFC 124 in Montreal next month. Having spoken to Miller on multiple occasions, one thing working in his favor is that he has no sense of entitlement to a move up the rankings; he takes each fight as it comes and maintains that continued success in the cage will eventually bring him to a title shot, even if that means racking up two or three more victories before reaching his ultimate goal.
If I'm including Jim Miller in the mix as a contender - which he rightfully deserves - I have to make mention of his UFC 124 opponent Charles Oliveira as well. The hyperactive young Brazilian burst onto the UFC lightweight sene in the summer with a quick triangle choke finish of Darren Elkins, following it up with a tremendous showing against Efrain Escudero just six-weeks later. Miller is a big step up in competition, but "Do Bronx" has done nothing but impress to this point, earning comparisons to Jon Jones in the process. His bout at UFC 124 wil certainly help determine where his ceiling rests and what to expect from the unbeaten Brazilian in 2011.
The Other You'll See
Donald Cerrone might become one of the biggest names in the sport now that he'll have the full force of the UFC marketing and promotions department behind him, and it might won't just be for his performance in the cage. "Cowboy" is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the lightweight division, as he brings a quality kickboxing pedigree and strong submission game into the Octagon, but his personality is what will put him over the top in his new organization. A very outspoken and sometimes controversial fighter, Cerrone has the makings of a lightweight Josh Koscheck in terms of media and fan attention and attitudes. You're either going to love him or hate him, but either way, you'll know the name Donald Cerrone by the time 2011 is up, if you don't already
Somebody is going to object to my leaving Takanori Gomi out of the initial list of challengers, but I'm sorry - one knockout win does not a true contender make. While "The Fireball Kid" certainly showed that his quick and powerful hands remain dangerous in dropping Tyson Griffin last August, he was dominated by Kenny Florian in his UFC debut and faces a stern challenge on New Year's Day in the form of Clay Guida. While I would love to see a renaissance for the former Top 5 lightweight, for now I will take the wait-and-see approach with Gomi, hoping for the best, but not getting too far ahead of myself.
Clay Guida is always going to be around, both because of his exciting style of fighting and his insanely charismatic and popular persona. That being said, "The Carpenter" is the quinessential gatekeeper, a tough out for anyone, but not quite at the elite level necessary to propel him into title contention. He'll spend 2011 doing the same things he's done in 2010: slugging it out with potential contenders, singing his entire walkout song, jumping around in the prep point and burping with extreme force between rounds.
Former WEC lightweight champion Jamie Varner will remain in the mix as well, though how high up he climbs is yet to be determined. After losing his long-awaited rematch with Cerrone during the summer, the Arizona Combat Sports member has a meeting with Shane Roller scheduled for WEC 53, and the outcome of that contest could help dictate what 2011 has in store for "C-4." For all his accomplishments and abilities, Varner is 0-2-1 in his last three fights and hasn't found the win column since January 2009. He has the skills to be a staple in the division, it's just a matter of if he can put it all together in time to get the chance in 2011.
The same goes for Varner's opponent at WEC 53, Shane Roller. A talented wrestler out of the Team Takedown camp, Roller had won three-straight before being dominated by Anthony Pettis in a #1 contenders match at WEC 50. For the former Oklahoma State All-American to swim in the deep waters of the division moving forward, he will need to really improve his stand-up game, as high-level wrestling isn't enough to get you through the shark tank that is now the UFC lightweight ranks.
After being on the wrong end of the worst decision of the year, Tyson Griffin is at a serious crossroad. He's now lost three-straight fights and while his employment status with the UFC hasn't changed, he won't be able to say the same thing if he drops a fourth consecutive contest. Following his surprisingly undiscussed robbery opposite Nik Lentz last weekend, Griffin expressed an interest in dropping down to the featherweight division, a move that would make a lot of sense in my opinion. The 145-pound weight class was probably always a better fit for the compact Xtreme Couture student, and now that the division is under the UFC umbrella, the money will be enough to merit the move.
Joe Stevenson will continue to stick around, though a loss to Mac Danzig at UFC 124 before the year's end could change those plans. The winner of Season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter has never really evolved beyond his original skill set, despite the praise that was heap upon him initially following his move to Greg Jackson's in the summer of 2009. He is still a solid wrestler with decent hands, but his time as a title contender are through.
One name that will get some early run in the lightweight ranks in 2011 is Marcus Davis, simply because "The Irish Hand Grenade" is a fan favorite and move down the scale should garner some interest off the bat. We'll find out early on if Davis has anything left in the tank - my guess is no - as he meets powerful Jeremy Stephens at UFC 125 on New Year's Day.
I honestly could keep going for another six or eight fighters, as guys like Melvin Guillard, Chris Horodecki, Kurt Pellegrino, Sam Stout and Joe Lauzon all deserve some recognition in the ranks of the lightweight division, but including a paragraph on each of them would mean I own the same to Kamal Shalorus, Bart Palaszewski, Ross Pearson, Edson Barbosa, Mark Bocek and another ten guys who will all be fighting hard for a place in this insanely competitive class in 2011.
Now do you see why I'm so excited by the lightweight division?
*****
(This post was last modified: 30-11-2010 16:22 by groundnpound.)
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