Europe, Referendum & Brexit (formerly Europe..IN or OUT??)

-43? Mate, How is that possible?

(03-09-2019 22:56 )babelover48 Wrote:  -43? Mate, How is that possible?

One MP crossed the floor, and 21 had the whip removed, so government are 22 down and the opposition bench is 22 up, that's a swing of 44.

There is always the chance that if the vote on the bill to stop no deal Brexit is passed by both The Commons and The Lords that Johnson could advise the Queen to deny it Royal Ascent and stop it becoming law, which would be extremely unprecedented but then so was prorogation

The suspension of the whip of 21 MPs shows that Number 10's tactic is to be utterly ruthlessly dedicated to the leave on Oct 31st no ifs no buts mantra set out by Boris on the cobbles of Downing Street. I assume that they are hedging their bets that this strategy will win them enough Northern Heartland seats from Labour that voted Leave to mitigate their losses to The Lib Dems in the South. But was that calculation made before Ruth Davidson resigned and affectively handed the seats they she won in Scotland presumably back to The SNP?

Either way it seems like a very tall order

To win an election the Tories need to win a few dozen of those Labour seats at minimum without taking into account the seats the Tories themselves will lose, especially in Scotland where they could lose the majority of their seats with Ruth Davidson now gone as Scottish Tory leader. If/when there is an election the Tories may well win the most seats but I can't see the possibility of them even getting close to a majority, and especially not with the Lib Dems and Brexit Party in the mix to do quite well

I'd surmise this way... that this government has been on a life support machine for a long time and someone now has to have the courage and conviction to turn thst machine off.

(04-09-2019 00:16 )southsidestu Wrote:  There is always the chance that if the vote on the bill to stop no deal Brexit is passed by both The Commons and The Lords that Johnson could advise the Queen to deny it Royal Ascent and stop it becoming law, which would be extremely unprecedented but then so was prorogation

The suspension of the whip of 21 MPs shows that Number 10's tactic is to be utterly ruthlessly dedicated to the leave on Oct 31st no ifs no buts mantra set out by Boris on the cobbles of Downing Street. I assume that they are hedging their bets that this strategy will win them enough Northern Heartland seats from Labour that voted Leave to mitigate their losses to The Lib Dems in the South. But was that calculation made before Ruth Davidson resigned and affectively handed the seats they she won in Scotland presumably back to The SNP?

Either way it seems like a very tall order

The thing is there is no way the Conservatives are able to fight a GE in it's current state, it is too far split than I would say Labour is split. In a general election could you really trust Corbyn (Who IMO has done very little to defuse the anti Semitism row within Labour and if that was rear it's ugly head again during any campaign that probably would make many more people not vote Labour) as PM than Johnson?

My guess is, we would still get a hung Parliament once more, and any coalition Government would probably be between Lab/Lib Dems/Brexit.
I'm sure I'm right in thinking that there has not been a Government in power with a sizeable overall majority since Blair won power in '97.
I think when Dodgy Dave called the referendum, he was advised against doing so by many of his Cabinet and lost. I think his majority was 12 when he won in 2015. I did not think Teresa May would shrink that majority but she did, and now this Government has no working majority, which to me, means any legislation defeat will weaken Johnson still further. I would think that it would be a bloody miracle if the government won the debate today.
But overall, I think the prorogue of Parliament has spectacularly backfired on him, in more ways than one, and I cannot see him getting any Queen's Speech through the House.

Aside from that my other biggest fear is that the divide between public and Parliament is so great (and probably even as great as it was when Blair took us to war with Iraq) there is now no real connection between the two, and it will never be repaired in my lifetime.
Even if we left the EU with no deal or a hastily cobbled together deal or the EU threw us out on Oct 31, many of us will look back on this period in our history as probably the most divisive period in British political history.
Johnson has his work cut out now to get anything from Europe that would convince Parliament and us that it is the best deal out there, and I don't think
there will be many in Europe who will even sit down with him to discuss anything. Any lifeline Merkel had promised is likely to be non existent when he goes to Brussels, and I think his speech on Monday was def one of a PM who was pretty much almost out on his feet and a dead PM walking.
I do feel that when the next GE happens, I will probably not vote as I think that Parliament has never honoured the referendum result, and cannot bring itself to honour it.

(03-09-2019 15:12 )skully Wrote:  Good to hear, let's hope when an election happens he loses his seat too, he doesn't deserve to be an MP. Quite a few don't imo.

Less than 100,000 people voted him into the job, yet he seems to think he can speak for us all, he speaks for a fraction of a percentage of the population. He's not my PM, I didn't vote him in, or have the opportunity to vote against him.
No politician should be allowed to hold the top job without a public vote, no one party membership has the right to decide the rest of our future decisions (that needs to change), so hopefully this week will be the beginning of his end, not just as PM, but as a politician with any real standing. If one thing is very clear, he is in this for himself not his party (a rude awakening for some) and certainly not for the good of the country.

I can point it all back to when Blair handed the keys to No. 10 to Gordon Brown. Dodgy Dave's election win was a surprise one and May's win was one that merely papered over the divisions within the Conservatives. Johnson has already sealed his fate. I think his time in office would be a record and probably may just as short as when Brain Clough was at Leeds United!! and i completely with you Skully, I do not recognise Johnson as my Pm,I was not allwed to vote for or against him.

After the vote last night Johnson claimed that if the Bill passes today it will be a vote to stop negotiation of a deal. That’s utter bollocks. For a start the Bill if it becomes law does no such thing. More importantly as Phillip Hammond, Ken Clarke and the EU have said THERE ARE NO NEGOTIATIONS GOING ON BECAUSE DESPITE REPEATED REQUESTS JOHNSON HAS NOT PUT FORWARD ANY WORKABLE SOLUTIONS TO THE BACKSTOP. He wants a no deal and the fact that he’s lying to the public and Parliament is disgusting.

Further evidence of his lying is that in the Scottish Courts yesterday it was revealed that he agreed to prorogue Parliament around the 15th August yet denied publically he would do so up until he announced it on 28th August.

One Conservative MP who rebelled yesterday pointed out that the suspension of Parliament for 3 weeks for the Party Conferences was subject to a vote in Parliament and was likely to have been rejected because of Brexit.

The problem on the horizon that I see though is that the opinion polls suggest that in an election the Conservatives would win a majority and if they do (and have kicked out the rebels) then they will force through No Deal as they can overturn the Bill blocking it.

(04-09-2019 06:34 )babelover48 Wrote:  

I can point it all back to when Blair handed the keys to No. 10 to Gordon Brown and I would say Dodgy Dave has been the only elected PM since Blair and May & Johnson have never won a GE.

That will be except for the one May won in 2017 but without an overall majority

would you say his move to prorogue Parliament will achieve nothing?