Coronavirus - is enough being done to contain it?

Well I think she's probably now found out the hard way that there could be a big surge that the system needs to catch up on....

and if this track and trace testing is so damn bloody "world - beating" why the bloody heel is it not working up to that standard? Trust me if we ever get another fucking pandemic before the next election, just remind me not to vote Tory or Boris.......

(23-09-2020 20:33 )Rake Wrote:  Then there is the question of if the immunity it confers is lasting or not...quite possibly not, meaning boosters or updated vaccines annually similar to the flu vaccine programme.

The same applies to your herd immunity plan. It will be totally ineffective if it requires the population to be constantly re-infected every year.

So that could be over 1 million deaths before they discover whether it works or not. Not to mention what kind of numbers would require hospital admission.

It's also the case that some people are still suffering side effects 6 months after being infected. If people get hit with reinfection before being fully recovered from the previous time, the death and hospital admission rate could rise with each subsequent wave of the virus.

Of course after a good few million of the most vulnerable people have been killed off things could start to improve. Possibly.

Just seen this on twitter

Bars and restuarants have to close at 10pm.
What's to stop them from reopening after midnight... It's a different day.

(24-09-2020 08:32 )Charlemagne Wrote:  Just seen this on twitter

Bars and restuarants have to close at 10pm.
What's to stop them from reopening after midnight... It's a different day.

The rules say have to close between 10pm & 5am

^ There is also the distinct possibility that recovering from covid or being infected asystematically may only grant immunity for scant months: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/j...y-suggests

thats to stop cunts like tim martin opening at midnight

Tim Martin is a legend.The cunt is Boris, he can fuck off if he thinks he's going to get my vote again in the next election...

HP, I can see the cunt challenging the Govt over that I bet he thinks if most pubs are shut between 10pm - 5am, then I'll have mine open from 10pm to 5am to encourage all night drinking!!

(24-09-2020 08:59 )ShandyHand Wrote:  ^ There is also the distinct possibility that recovering from covid or being infected asystematically may only grant immunity for scant months: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/j...y-suggests

Hence my plan (shared by many in the field) about a nuanced, age-risk stratified response.

(24-09-2020 08:13 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  

(23-09-2020 20:33 )Rake Wrote:  Then there is the question of if the immunity it confers is lasting or not...quite possibly not, meaning boosters or updated vaccines annually similar to the flu vaccine programme.

The same applies to your herd immunity plan. It will be totally ineffective if it requires the population to be constantly re-infected every year.

So that could be over 1 million deaths before they discover whether it works or not. Not to mention what kind of numbers would require hospital admission.

It's also the case that some people are still suffering side effects 6 months after being infected. If people get hit with reinfection before being fully recovered from the previous time, the death and hospital admission rate could rise with each subsequent wave of the virus.

Of course after a good few million of the most vulnerable people have been killed off things could start to improve. Possibly.

Herd immunity is not "my plan". It is a basic principle of infective epidemiology. Smallpox global eradication and measles control are the classic examples. Influenza, and norovirus epidemics (and annual vaccinations of populations) produce temporary herd immunity until a new strain emerges due to evolutionary pressure and antigenic drift and shift. One hopes SARS-C0V-2 is more genetically stable than flu and norovirus and doesn't mutate and drift and shift so readily, and so might be pretty much eliminated in a single round of global vaccination. If not we are going have to live with it.

The problem is SARS-Cov-2 is exceptionally transmissible (infectious) compared to its predecessors. But thankfully not as lethal as SARS-Cov and MERS-Cov, 11% and circa 30% Case Fatality Ratios respectively.

SARS-CoV has disappeared due to low transmissibillty and therefore the effectiveness of control measures alone worked; and MERS-CoV is much much less infectious than both SARS-Cov and SARS-Cov-2, the MERS-Cov does not do human-human transmission hardy at all. Vaccinations just were't necessary.