US Election & Presidency

(30-09-2020 12:21 )snookered Wrote:  I watched the whole thing.

Quick.question and answer.....

1. Did Trump win on merit imo? No
2. Did Biden win on merit imo? No
3. Did anybody win? No
4. How was the moderator? Useless but to be honest mics should be cut in the face of 2 things i.e (a) Heckling and interruption and (b) failure to answer the question or point raised.
5. Who lost?.The American electorate but tbh they have only themselves to blame in many ways for electing Trump into office in the first place with all it's ensuing baggage .
6a. What did Trump need to do? Set out a clear, positive and believable agenda fot the future.
6b. Did he succeed? . Silly question. He was too busy heckling .
7a: What did Biden need to do? Damage limitation to a degree, avoid gaffes.
7b: Did he succeed? He was unconvincing at times tbh. He failed to answer some questions properly and refused to answer others. He was guilty of some bluster just as Trump was imo. He avoided catastrophe at least which forced Trump into a situation where continual attack and heckling would not be enough to get the job done. Trump failed but in all honesty Biden hardly excelled in winning the debate.
That being said the 'debate' was pretty messy and bogged down in petty sniping.
8. Will the next two debates be much different? Don't hold your breath

1. Did Trump win on merit ? Agreed, No
2. Did Biden win on merit imo? Not sure
3. Did anybody win? Agreed No
4. How was the moderator? Was definitely Useless but both should have been warned about Heckling and personal attacks the moderator should be replaced
for next debate by someone who can be a lot firmer.
5. Who lost?. i agree the electorate lost but I think much of the American electorate will be sitting on the fence for now until election day.
6a. What did Trump need to do? Stop heckling and like snookered said, set out a clear, positive and believable agenda fot the future.
6b. Did he succeed? Trump probably lost voters with his performance. By refusing to denounce white supremacists probably showed exactly where he was coming from.
7a: What did Biden need to do? Agree with snookered.
7b: Did he succeed? Biden needs to be given an opportunity to set out his agenda and and not drop to Trump's level, Maybe he should give Keir Starmer a call!!!
8. Will the next two debates be much different? Don't hold your breath

(30-09-2020 13:34 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  the moderator should be replaced
for next debate by someone who can be a lot firmer.

The next debate has a different moderator anyway. Someone by the name of Scully. Not to be confused with our own moderator skully.

^ Or this guy ....if only

Lots of American voters have already voted, be interesting to see if these debates swing anyone who hasn't voted
BTW, what a shitshow the whole thing is.

is it a far worse shit show than ours?

(30-09-2020 13:45 )elgar1uk Wrote:  

(30-09-2020 13:34 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  the moderator should be replaced
for next debate by someone who can be a lot firmer.

The next debate has a different moderator anyway. Someone by the name of Scully. Not to be confused with our own moderator skully.

I'm sure Our skully would have jumped at the chance....

(30-09-2020 13:53 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  is it a far worse shit show than ours?

Somehow...yes.

(30-09-2020 13:57 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  

(30-09-2020 13:45 )elgar1uk Wrote:  

(30-09-2020 13:34 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  the moderator should be replaced
for next debate by someone who can be a lot firmer.

The next debate has a different moderator anyway. Someone by the name of Scully. Not to be confused with our own moderator skully.

I'm sure Our skully would have jumped at the chance....

Nah, our skully is to much of a gentleman to get involved with riff raff like Trump I however would be willing to volunteer, just as long as i have my cattle prod handy.

(30-09-2020 11:36 )Slabhead Wrote:  And Jesus fucking Christ, I thought we might've learned to take polls with a pinch of salt after 2016, on both sides of the Atlantic.

The polls were no less accurate in 2016 than they have been over the past 50 years. The media has just gotten more dumb and sensationalistic, interpreting a 3-point lead for Clinton as a sure-fire win, when it was well within the margin of error.

I remember 538 on the eve of the election giving Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning. Yes, it was leaning toward Clinton -- and bear in mind that she did win the popular vote by, funnily enough, about 3% -- but a 1 in 3 chance is a real chance.

As it stands, the same forecasters at 538 are giving Biden a 78% chance of winning the election. Trump has an absolute mountain to climb and I can't see him doing it.

Big differences to 2016:

- Too many democrats succumbed to the media narrative that Clinton had it in the bag and stayed home on election day. Less likely to happen this time around.
- Clinton was so hated by Republicans that even those who were embarrassed and disgusted by Trump held their nose and voted for him anyway. Biden doesn't inspire the same type of revulsion.
- Trump didn't have a record to run on. His biggest appeal was that he was the 'outsider'. He's not an outsider anymore and his record in office has been pretty dismal.
- The ranks of 'never Trump' Republicans have swelled in the last four years. If all they do is chip off 2% to 3% of the Republican vote, then Trump doesn't have a prayer.
- Trump's base will stick with him through anything. For all the turbulence of his presidency, his approval rating has been more stable and consistent than any other president in modern times. But it is consistently low -- it never drops below 40% and never goes higher than 45%. In other words, his base is behind him whatever happens -- but his base just isn't big enough to get him reelected. And I don't know where Trump is going to get the other votes he needs.

Bet he'll get Russians to vote for him under assumed American names