US Election & Presidency

^Have a think about what you just posted.

If Trump or anybody else starts a war with China it'll be everyone's War whether they're on one side, the other or neutral. We'd all be lucky to see the end of the first day, never mind the third.

(30-09-2020 14:30 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  The polls were no less accurate in 2016 than they have been over the past 50 years. The media has just gotten more dumb and sensationalistic, interpreting a 3-point lead for Clinton as a sure-fire win, when it was well within the margin of error.

I remember 538 on the eve of the election giving Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning. Yes, it was leaning toward Clinton -- and bear in mind that she did win the popular vote by, funnily enough, about 3% -- but a 1 in 3 chance is a real chance.

As it stands, the same forecasters at 538 are giving Biden a 78% chance of winning the election. Trump has an absolute mountain to climb and I can't see him doing it.

Big differences to 2016:

- Too many democrats succumbed to the media narrative that Clinton had it in the bag and stayed home on election day. Less likely to happen this time around.
- Clinton was so hated by Republicans that even those who were embarrassed and disgusted by Trump held their nose and voted for him anyway. Biden doesn't inspire the same type of revulsion.
- Trump didn't have a record to run on. His biggest appeal was that he was the 'outsider'. He's not an outsider anymore and his record in office has been pretty dismal.
- The ranks of 'never Trump' Republicans have swelled in the last four years. If all they do is chip off 2% to 3% of the Republican vote, then Trump doesn't have a prayer.
- Trump's base will stick with him through anything. For all the turbulence of his presidency, his approval rating has been more stable and consistent than any other president in modern times. But it is consistently low -- it never drops below 40% and never goes higher than 45%. In other words, his base is behind him whatever happens -- but his base just isn't big enough to get him reelected. And I don't know where Trump is going to get the other votes he needs.

Yeah, there are some differences to 2016, namely the fact that entire cities have been besieged by far left fascists. That's going to make any voter concerned about law and order turn to Trump and not a President who is weak on it. Any sane Democrat who is a business owner or is concerned about law and order in the cities would be foolish not consider changing their ticket, regardless on what they think about the incumbent on other issues. Because antifa aren't going away, and they'll certainly be given cover under a Biden Presidency.

Actually Clinton did have some support from Republicans. Trump was the one accused of abusing the party he was running on, yet still won.

Trump is still an outsider compared to Biden who was VP for 8 years and has been in Congress for over 40 years. And black Americans are still suffering from Biden's crime legislation in the 90s. Trump destroyed him on that.

Never Trumpers were at their strongest when he first ran as a candidate. They couldnt complain when up until corona the economy was doing far better than any other Western country.

Trump can get further votes from those insecure about law and order. He managed to get on board working class voters disappointed by St Obama and he can do it again with others.

(30-09-2020 18:42 )skully Wrote:  These debates show just how uneducated Trump is, he always resorts to childish antics.
This man is America's president and may get a second term

It says far more about the 'educated' candidates that they managed to get the their arses kicked by 'uneducated' Trump lol. All that campaign money Yale educated Hillary received and yet managed to find a way to lose to 'dumbass' Trump

Quote:At least when he was running in 2016 he had something to say: build the wall, drain the swap, renegotiate trade deals etc, you can argue how good or genuine these statements were but it gave you some idea of where he stood & what he wanted to do. I watched the whole thing live & I can barely remember anything he actually said. He seemed to just hurl accusations of socialism at Biden which is ridiculous because most Democratic Socialists on twitter hate Biden's guts, ironically Bernie is the only Democratic Socialist that likes Joe.

He doesn't need to say a whole bunch of new stuff when Democrat run cities have been aflame for the whole world to see. His law and order line is simple and effective. The new bunch of Democrats are SJWs who are reveled by middle America and working class Americans. And whilst Biden lean towards the centre, he's going to have his hands tied behind by the far left of the party.

Trump destroyed Biden on his record with black Americans. Biden was the who wrote the controversial Violent Crime Act in the 90s that led to mass incarceration of black Americans. Black American voters have drifted further and further away from the Democrats each year since Obama won the office. Under Trump, black employment has never been higher. And Creepy Joe had the nerve to accuse Trump of being racist lol.

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  far left fascists.

Yeah, Hitler was a communist...

(30-09-2020 13:57 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  I'm sure Our skully would have jumped at the chance....

I'm sure he wouldn't.
He is far too busy........ I mean look......

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  Actually Clinton did have some support from Republicans. Trump was the one accused of abusing the party he was running on, yet still won.

I'm sure she did -- not least from Anna Navarro types who were so thoroughly disgusted by the 'locker room talk'. But in the broader terms of a national election, I'm sure that the Republican antipathy towards anything with the name Clinton was much more influential in 2016 than its general ambivalence towards Biden will be in 2020.

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  Never Trumpers were at their strongest when he first ran as a candidate. They couldnt complain when up until corona the economy was doing far better than any other Western country.

Never Trumpers in 2016 made tepid statements of disapproval as pundits on cable news. Never Trumpers in 2020 have well-funded political action committees buying up ad time in battleground states. And, again, they don't have to do very much. They just have to shave a few moderate Republicans off the base to swing the election Biden's way.

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  Trump can get further votes from those insecure about law and order.

Well, that's the hope isn't it? Law & Order is the simple-message platform that the Trump campaign has gone all-in with.

Trouble is that this whole "cities aflame" chaos theory isn't really landing outside the base. Survey after survey shows that people's interpretation of urban unrest is entirely dependent on their political persuasion. It is not a unifying idea. The Breitbart minority might agree that cities have been set on fire by "far left fascists" (?!?), but there are more people who think that the protests have been mostly peaceful and mostly justified, blaming any violence on a combination of 'bad apple' actors and heavy-handed policing.

The suburban voters that Trump needs to persuade are not scared of brick-throwing protesters or antifa boogeymen. They are scared of an airborne virus that has taken more lives on Trump's watch than the Vietnam, Korean and Iraq wars combined.

There is no bipartisan law & order constituency out there. The law & order message is just more meat for a shrinking base.

Biden broke fundraising records, gaining $3.8 million in donations in the hour after the 'debate'.

I've seen a few people commenting that Trumps constant interruptions at the debate may have been an attempt to trigger Biden's stutter and it would not surprise me. New rules will be in place for the next debate which will take the form of a town hall (questions from the audience)

What about 2 ducking stools for the next debate, that would shut Trumpy the fuck up. interrupt and in you go, trumpy with his barnet floating like a jellyfish. You must admit it would make great television