US Election & Presidency

Apparently Biden is eating into the deficit in Pennsylvania at a storming rate through the mail in votes and is now bookies favourite to overhaul Trump to claim the state.

(04-11-2020 18:40 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  I think the Democrats have the House pretty much locked down.

The Senate is looking unlikely for them, but still near enough to a 50/50 to make governing difficult but possible.

Electioneering bravado aside, Biden is a centrist and a former Senator who is liked and respected by many Republican Senators. He is not as divisive as Trump was or as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would have been.

So not winning the Senate could be a blessing in disguise. It would allow Biden to keep the progressive wing of his own party at bay, saying "I know you want to ban fracking outright and pass the Green New Deal, but I'll never get it through the Senate, so you'll have to compromise."

It could be a return to the calm, humdrum politics of old.

Keeping the progressive wing at bay is a mistake. There are some good policies that would be a big vote getter with progressives (medicare for all and legalising weed for instance) but instead the centrist dem establishment spit in the face of their base, it's part of why they lost to Trump last time. When they ignore their base they go all in to try and gain moderate Republican voters, like they did again this election, which failed spectacularly as Trump increased his vote among Republicans.

Just a note on legalising weed, it was on the ballot in Arizona which Biden won. It was a big issue for the Latino vote there and helped to drive turnout. The Latino vote that didn't work out for biden in Texas and Florida, check out Chuck Rocha on The Hill youtube channel from earlier today, very good analysis on this issue, especially with the dem failures with the Latino vote.

(04-11-2020 08:48 )Charlemagne Wrote:  If you look at the figures, it's possible that it could end up as a 270/270 draw.

538 Electors so 269/269 would be a draw assuming no Independents win votes.

If that happens then the 50 Representatives in the House vote until there's a winner. If they're split evenly then the sitting President & VP would be forced to leave Office on January 20th and the Speaker (Pelosi) would become Acting President until a new election is scheduled.

Both NYT and CNN have called Wisconsin for Biden.

Yikes!

More twists and turns...

ABC has pulled Arizona from Biden for now. There are 600,000 ballots left to count.

Mostly mail-in ballots, which would normally bode well for Biden, but these were ballots that arrived late or were dropped off in person, so they are not necessarily as blue-ish as ballots that are mailed in advance.

If Trump wins Arizona, then he still has as path — through Georgia and Pennsylvania — that doesn’t require Wisconsin and Michigan (where he is trailing).

Trump got a "bigly" 5.2% of the vote in D.C.

I suspect he's not too popular there

Democratic Party officials saying Biden on track to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by more
than Trump in 2016.

If Biden wins all those, he wins the presidency.

(04-11-2020 20:00 )Cooper_temple Wrote:  Democratic Party officials saying Biden on track to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by more
than Trump in 2016.

If Biden wins all those, he wins the presidency.

I bet even Slabhead is also calling for a recount...

There's only one way I'd describe Trump...

A SORE LOSER & I'd bring the inauguaration forward to December, just to get Trump out of the White House as quickly as possible!!!

Latest projection from Sky News

Biden: 253
Trump: 214

Biden only needs 17 more electoral college votes to win

He just needs Arizona and Nevada

he is up in both