Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Big bangs in Sevastopol tonight. Looks like the Ukrainians have hit the Black Sea Fleet Comms Centre.

https://t.me/combatfootageua/14338


And the predictable response...4 x Tu95 airborne. Targets as yet unknown.

It looks like the Ukraine Aid bill will finally be put to the vote in the US Congress on Saturday after months of delays and political game playing. Meanwhile, the lunatic Majorie Taylor Greene (Trump Groupie, Russian Asset / Asshat) is trying to throw amendmentS into he mix.... https://uk.news.yahoo.com/marjorie-taylo...52737.html

One interesting clause in the bill gives the President authority to transfer ATACM Missile Systems which Biden has resisted doing in the past. There are around 1000 of these systems waiting to be decommissioned right now so it would actually be cheaper to let the Ukrainians have them than it would be to pay to scrap them!


Germany's Chancellor Scholz says there are up to 6 Patriot missile Systems in NATO Member States that could be transferred to Ukraine. OK, get on with it then!! While the Dutch Government has said it will buy a Patriot Battery from any country willing to sell and transfer it to Ukraine.

The bill to approve over $61 Billion of aid to Ukraine has passed through the House of Representatives by 311 to 112 votes. It now goes to the Senate for approval. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has said they will vote on it as soon as possible and it's expected to be approved, hopefully on Tuesday.

The US Dept of Defence has apparently pre-positioned a lot of equipment and is ready to go as soon as they get the nod.

(23-03-2024 13:23 )Tumble_Drier Wrote:  I'm worried about what comes next. I can see a major push on Kharkiv at the very least.

And it looks like it's started. Apparently they're attempting to create a "buffer zone" and push the border 10Km further into Ukrainian territory.

Whether they actually have the manpower to do it is an entirely different question.

It's reported that Putin may agree a ceasefire.
But it's only if it includes the gains that he has made.. including the recent advances near Kharkiv.

Any ceasefire will only be to allow him time to regroup & rearm.

After bombing a Hypermarket in Kharkiv today, killing 4 people, injuring 40 and leaving 16 unaccounted for, the Russian Scum now have bombers in the air for yet another massive missile strike.


5 x Tu-22 and at least 3 Tu-95 Bombers have taken off from Olenya near Murmansk in Northern Russia. They are expected to reach their launch boxes between 0230 & 0430 with Missiles entering Ukrainian Airspace between 0330 and 0530 local times. There are also several groups of Shahed Drones inbound to Ukraine.

They're either after energy facilities (again...there are already daily power cuts) or they're going to really hit Kharkiv hard.

*Edit*. I've just remembered that Sunday is "Kyiv Day" which in normal circumstances is a holiday. I hope that lot isn't concentrated on the Capital.

10 x Tu-95 in the air again. Another sleepless night across Ukraine.

I wonder now how far we could be from the end of the war and If & when Putin looks westwards

^ How long is a piece of string? 1 man could end it tomorrow simply by withdrawing his troops but that would most likely be his last action as Russian President.

As for looking westwards, all he can do is look. The Russian Military was handed its arse in pretty short order when it tried to take Kyiv and was beaten back to the east of Ukraine. They’ve made some advances recently but other than a couple of small towns they’ve taken no significant areas in almost 2 years. If they went up against even a few of the NATO countries any advancing Russian units would be decimated, they simply don’t have the numbers in either men or equipment any more.

They’ve been reduced to lobbing glide bombs at Kharkiv from Russian airspace which will become near enough impossible if/when they’re allowed to fire Patriot across the border.

Zelenskyy recently announced that units are no longer reporting shortages of artillery shells so when the supplies from the Czech initiative start arriving (early June apparently) they should be able to batter any Russians who are stupid enough to stray into range.


As for the Kinzhal, Cruise Missile and drone attacks these are largely just a nuisance . The majority of air launched cruise missiles and almost all the Shaheds get shot down with the only effective missiles being the Kinzhals, which can only be launched by MiG 31s and the old S300 anti aircraft missiles they’re using as a pound shop surface to surface weapons.


Going back to the Patriots for a moment, these were the reason for the increase in Russian aircraft being shot down a few months back. The Ukrainians managed to sneak a Patriot Battery forward far enough to engage Russian planes and several Su-34/35 and Airborne Early Warning planes were brought down. The Americans & Germans got pissy about engaging targets in Russian Airspace and they had to pull it back. Remove that restriction and the game changes significantly.


What Ukraine needs most is extra anti missile defences around power & infrastructure sites. On dull days when their huge solar plants don’t work there are massive power cuts around the country. Kyiv was suffering 8 hour + blackouts just last week.


They seem to be increasing attacks on Russian sites in Crimea too so watch for something happening there soon. There was a suggestion that the Kerch bridge might in in the firing line again and just last night a couple of ferries nearby were hit with ATACMS.