General Election 2024

BBC News: Green manifesto - 11 Key policies analysed

Latest poll puts Labour on 262 seats and Lib Dems will be official opposition, Reform will have 7 MP's

^If that's the Survation Poll it's a majority of 262.

Projected seat numbers -

LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

Reform wont have 7 i think once its over Farage will rejoin the torys and as he is major shareholder of Reform he will pull the plug

Would be something if the Lib Dems finish second.

Yougov are the pollster that has consistently had Reform higher than all the others. In just about every By-election Reform have underperformed their polling by about 50%, Blackpool South being the one where they really did well getting 16%.

Mentioned this earlier, a lot of it come down to how you ask the question, if the pollster gives the public the main parties plus Reform as an option, Reform will suck up the protest votes & don't knows, where as if the pollster splits the poll into 2 questions where they give the main parties plus other then ask the public to specifiy then the votes splits amongst Reform, Greens, Plaid Cymru etc

Stephen Bush at The FT described Reform as "Don't Know" for men

So should we dismiss the Survation poll and trust the Yougov one more?

I have a feeling come the exit polls on election night it might end up being a lot closer than it is now. I think if Lib Dems were the official opposition to Labour I have a feeling they might not be an effective opposition to Labour. I wouldn't be surprised if Farage was to challenge for the Conservative leadership, but I think the heavier the Conservative lossses the more likely Farage will possibly challenge & possibly find himself up against Penny Mordaunt for the leadership, I think Mordaunt would be the only one from the last Government, I think who could lead any new incanation of the Conservatives who probably could fend off Farage and bring stability to the Conservatives.

^Farage will need to be elected an mp,then defect to the tories,then compete to be leader.To many ifs for that to happen.Becoming an mp has eluded him up to now.Lets see.

would labour not put in any effort into it just so it leads to a tory civil war

wouldnt be surprised if some in the party are already schemeing

all i know if the numbers the polls are predicting are correct wont need many MPs names to go forward

BBC News: Reform UK manifesto - 11 key policies analysed