RE: US Election & Presidency
I’ll say, first of all, that I value your contributions to this thread, Lancelot.
It generally tilts left-of-centre, so we are always in danger of creating our own little “bubble” which is not healthy. It helps to have a different perspective. Years ago, that was provided by Slabhead, but his manner was unnecessarily aggressive and rude, which made for some fun debates but eventually I learned to tune him out.
As long as we’re declaring interests, I lived and worked in the US for almost 10 years, and have since stayed in touch with some family (New York, Texas) and many friends (Alabama, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle). Not a citizen and never voted, but I’m endlessly fascinated if not emotionally invested in the place.
I agree with some of your points above. Biden has tried to buy the “youth vote” with costly student loan forgiveness, and while I wouldn’t use the word “invasion”, I agree the Southern border is a problem that needs solving. I also think the Far Left has taken the DEI agenda — which is fine in theory — to a loopy, counterproductive extreme in practice.
But the point that intrigues me most is the perpetual angst about the debt.
First — whose fault is it? I just looked at the data.
Clinton added +$1.6 trillion to the debt and ran budget surpluses in his last three years. With tax cuts (obviously), two wars, and a financial crisis, George W Bush added +$6.1 trillion. Barack Obama added +$8 trillion through a combination of inherited wars, stimulus packages to get out of recession, and health care spending.
Trump added +$8 trillion in just four years, mostly due to tax cuts, defence spending, and COVID relief. Biden has so far added +$4 trillion, again influenced by COVID relief, the infrastructure package and social programmes (including student debt relief).
In short: every president of any political persuasion spends like a drunken sailor on shore leave. So I think it is less of an ideological issue than another symptom of cockeyed political incentives.
Second: is it really a crisis? A lesson that has always stayed with me from college economics is that debt — in isolation — tells us very little about a country’s economic health. What matters is debt-to-GDP and debt-to-deficit ratios. Put simply, when the debt is so large that you cannot pay the interest, or ALL you can do is pay the interest on your debt, then it’s a potential crisis.
Right now, America’s debt-to-GDP ratio is about 125%. That’s (a little bit) like having a $10,000 salary, and a $12,500 credit card bill. Troubling enough for a few sleepless nights, but not quite yet a crisis — especially if I used that debt to invest in things that might grow my salary.
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