AndyJames
Senior Poster
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RE: US Election & Presidency
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21-07-2024 23:10 |
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Goodfella3041
Posting Machine
Posts: 1,684
Joined: Feb 2011
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RE: US Election & Presidency
On issues alone, I think Harris:
+ Loses on ECONOMY because inflation is number one priority, remains stubbornly high, and Biden/Harris get tagged with it.
+ Wins on REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, which is most important issue to women in swing states.
+ Loses on FOREIGN POLICY for purely misogynistic / sexist reasons, but also because she gets tagged with Afghan withdrawal disaster, and “soft on terrorism” bias.
+ Loses on IMMIGRATION and BORDER issues, because this was in her portfolio as VP and nothing much was accomplished.
+ Even split on what were once social issues (HEALTH, EDUCATION, RACE, etc.) because these have all mutated into culture war issues and she considered very, very liberal.
+ Even split on CRIME. Democrats are always tagged as soft on crime, but she was a pretty hard-nosed prosecutor, so it’s hard to pin that on her.
Yes, she is ceiling-smashing candidate who may bring many ethnic minority voters and women back into the tent. She may re-energise young voters, but those lazy bastards never vote in large enough numbers anyway. But she could just as easily alienate the white, male, working class voter that is so important to the rust belt swing states.
Sitting here today, I’d still put my money on Trump. It’s his to lose.
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22-07-2024 12:30 |
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dundeered
Master Poster
Posts: 948
Joined: Dec 2009
Reputation: 22
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RE: US Election & Presidency
(22-07-2024 12:30 )Goodfella3041 Wrote: On issues alone, I think Harris:
+ Loses on ECONOMY because inflation is number one priority, remains stubbornly high, and Biden/Harris get tagged with it.
+ Wins on REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, which is most important issue to women in swing states.
+ Loses on FOREIGN POLICY for purely misogynistic / sexist reasons, but also because she gets tagged with Afghan withdrawal disaster, and “soft on terrorism” bias.
+ Loses on IMMIGRATION and BORDER issues, because this was in her portfolio as VP and nothing much was accomplished.
+ Even split on what were once social issues (HEALTH, EDUCATION, RACE, etc.) because these have all mutated into culture war issues and she considered very, very liberal.
+ Even split on CRIME. Democrats are always tagged as soft on crime, but she was a pretty hard-nosed prosecutor, so it’s hard to pin that on her.
Yes, she is ceiling-smashing candidate who may bring many ethnic minority voters and women back into the tent. She may re-energise young voters, but those lazy bastards never vote in large enough numbers anyway. But she could just as easily alienate the white, male, working class voter that is so important to the rust belt swing states.
Sitting here today, I’d still put my money on Trump. It’s his to lose.
But, if she picks the correct running mate for vice president those white, working class men in the rust belt states could be persuaded in enough numbers to flip them to the democrats?
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22-07-2024 14:44 |
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