US Election & Presidency

(15-10-2024 21:20 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  Today’s summary of various election models:

FiveThirtyEight: Harris 54:46 Trump
Economist: Harris 54:46 Trump
Silver Bulletin: Harris 50:50 Trump
Virtual Tout: Harris 44:56 Trump


An absolute toss-up today. But Trump has been surging and momentum is on his side.

My own theory: the more Harris gets out there, the less people like her. She is coming across too much like Hilary Clinton. Too stage-managed and inauthentic, speaking exclusively in poll-tested platitudes. Still time to turn it around, but she has to start talking like a person, not a campaign poster.

A Woman of No Substance.

Against anyone decent she'd have no chance. The world should still hope she wins mind.

Just hsad a thought though - If the Orange bastard (or fuckwit as Skully says) wins what are the chances he'll make a second attempt to buy the NHS in exchange for a deal of some kind of US investment?

If he is elected, I'm not sure anyone can really predict what will happen, other than many people will suffer and the world economy will be at risk
He also may be busy trying to destroy their constitution, so he and his family can go full North Korea and rule unopposed. Fuck knows is the answer imo.

An observation I made previously as an outsider looking in still stands.
A sense from the American electorate of being let down and not listened to.
Maybe even a sense of betrayal.

This feeling I suspect is made worse by a line of thinking that says 'Here we are, the biggest and richest western superpower, supposed democratic leader of the free world and yet my life prospects are poor, my freedoms are laced with inequality, my life chances feel compromised and nobody is looking out for me'. A sense that the system is not working for them no matter who is in the White House.

Part of the problem it seems to me is the increasing extremity of two party state politics and it's consequences.
The Republicans lurching further to the right, the Democrats sleepwalking further to the left.
The discerning squeezed middle of undecided voters in the swing states seem at a loss.

Trump with conspiracy theory led populist scaremongering. Harris with warnings of threat to democracy interspersed with trying to distance herself from Biden legacy with one hand and celebrate it on the other.
One candidate making out that everything is too bad to be true by virtue of not taking responsibility for so much ineffectuality of the system in making a positive difference.
The other warning that the rival candidate would produce a future even worse than too bad to be true through sheer irresponsibility of conduct and ideology.

This is defeatist from both candidates in an election that both deserve to lose but one will scrape over the line to win.
Defeatist not just to the losing candidate but more importantly to the American people. How sad it is that conspiracy led populism by Trump was ever able to claim success and then deny legitimate failure. How equally disappointing that Biden and now to a slightly lesser degree Harris have appeared to either flounder or operate word for word out of the let's try not to give too much away, say too much or promise too much playbook.

We know what Harris stands against but not enough specifically as to what she stands for.
With Trump it's a case of he is so deluded and up his own backside, so obsessed with his own sense of entitlement that what happens to ordinary Americans just doesn't matter.

Harris continues to belittle Trump but to negligible effect. The people she needs to persuade already know the reputation of Trump. They don't need her to make him look and sound a fool. He does that for himself. But she is not selling a proper vision in a way that says to people 'I hear you, I get it'.

That could yet prove not only her downfall but the downfall of America, it's constitution and possibly the rest of the world too.

It's probably better to get an outside view on the matter, since let's face it, we in the US are too far gone to objectively look at the picture being seen abroad.

For me, it's down to the 1% vs the 99%
The 1% controls everything, so are you willing to go against them, or cozy up to the them. Since Trump entered the game, it's been a lot of ass kissing to get in the good graces of the 1% (big shock they are vain people who aren't that hard to appease)

Some of the 1% support The Democrats
A Majority support Trump (I kind of view Trump separate from the Republican party)

It's about self preservation from the Trump side. These rallies are dare I say it, entering Nazi territory. His supporters don't believe Trump, they just like he's going against the opposition. Whatever that opposition may be (racial, wealth, women's rights)

The conspiracy theories and misinformation are totally out of control. The 1% had to means to manipulate the public during the pandemic which is absolutely disgusting. They made profits of it, we are still suffering

So it's a never ending game of having to take the bait they throw at us. We don't know any better

(18-10-2024 19:20 )Snooks Wrote:  Harris continues to belittle Trump but to negligible effect. The people she needs to persuade already know the reputation of Trump. They don't need her to make him look and sound a fool. He does that for himself. But she is not selling a proper vision in a way that says to people 'I hear you, I get it'.

This has become so obvious, calculated and in-your-face, yet so clearly counter-intuitive that I’m starting to wonder if it’s an actual strategy.

It’s possible that the Harris campaign has concluded there’s no persuadable votes left. Everyone has made their mind up and picked their team. And the polls are 50/50. This means it is now all about turnout — and nothing energises the left more than the fear and hatred of Trump.

If that’s the case, it will be wall-to-wall “threat to democracy” until election day. They will carpet-bomb the swing states with negative ads about the dumpster fire that would be another Trump presidency.

I don’t agree with it. I hated “project fear” during the Scottish referendum, and I hated it through the Brexit years. But I’m getting real “project fear” vibes from the Harris campaign.

^ Any views on the racist, misogynistic lies that Trump continues to spout every time he opens his mouth? Harris triggers him simply by using his own words or those of people on his campaign. He’s unable to respond coherently to any sensible policy question and today has claimed Harris will get rid of cows

If the media reported his clearly deteriorating state in the same way they pounced on Bidens faltering performances he wouldn’t have any hope of winning. His base isn’t big enough but are too far down the rabbit hole to change now. As with all elections it is about getting out the vote and persuading the independents/undecideds. Harris is doing this by taking him on on what he thought was his ground - Republican spaces like Fox News where she stormed this weeks interview. Meanwhile he tells a business audience in Detroit that Detroit is shit & today says that after he leaves his Fox interview v he’s going to see Rupert Murdoch & tell him not to have Harris, other Democrats or Democratic ads on Fox from now until the election.

(18-10-2024 21:42 )SecretAgent Wrote:  ^ Any views on the racist, misogynistic lies that Trump continues to spout every time he opens his mouth? Harris triggers him simply by using his own words or those of people on his campaign. He’s unable to respond coherently to any sensible policy question and today has claimed Harris will get rid of cows

If the media reported his clearly deteriorating state in the same way they pounced on Bidens faltering performances he wouldn’t have any hope of winning. His base isn’t big enough but are too far down the rabbit hole to change now. As with all elections it is about getting out the vote and persuading the independents/undecideds. Harris is doing this by taking him on on what he thought was his ground - Republican spaces like Fox News where she stormed this weeks interview. Meanwhile he tells a business audience in Detroit that Detroit is shit & today says that after he leaves his Fox interview v he’s going to see Rupert Murdoch & tell him not to have Harris, other Democrats or Democratic ads on Fox from now until the election.

His deterioration since the debate is pretty alarming. Harris is trying court the disgruntled Republicans to take the ammo from the Trump/Musk camp (anti free speech/guns)

Elon Musk and JD Vance are two charisma vacuums. Trump's failing mental state takes away a lot from his campaign. It's just bizarre threats and a whole bunch of tariffs at this point

Harris is trying to avoid a Hillary Clinton moment that would galvanize his voters
How Trump gets away with so many of these moments, I'll never know

(18-10-2024 21:42 )SecretAgent Wrote:  today has claimed Harris will get rid of cows

https://youtube.com/shorts/XhD153qz8rI?s...wPRYJWmgND

I couldn't quite believe it but it's had me in absolute stitches.