US Election & Presidency

The fact that Trump says JFK JR will be put in charge of Health and he’s an anti-vaxer for all vaccinations including kids getting MMR vaccinations etc means thousands will die unnecessary deaths. I also see even Fox hosts have been saying that it would be grounds for divorce if their wife didn’t vote as their husband told them to.

It’s a seriously screwed up country.

If you want some positive vibes Trump has been going full on alleging fraud with early voting in the critical of critical battleground states Pennsylvania

He would only do that if the data the campaign was getting on early voting was looking bad

I suspect Pennsylvania will be the key to victory for either side. A ridiculously small number of voters are gonna end up deciding this thing.

You never know, the polls were wrong in 2016, 2020 & 2022 and whilst Trump has been underpriced in both his elections, in the past two yrs pretty much every election at state & local level has underpriced the affect of Dobbs

This election is heavily gendered: Trump appealing to men & Harris to woman but men, particularly young men are low propensity voters with the lowest turn out where as the opposite is the case with woman

One of the reasons why the midterms went worse than expected for Republicans was that young voters turned out in higher numbers than usual this was driven by young female voters who were enthused by Dobbs

There is a belief (or maybe a hope) off the back of this, that in a bid to try to accurately capture the Trump vote pollsters are over correcting with non college educated white voters and in turn, under representing young woman

In addition the RNC has a week ground game when it comes to door knockers and getting people to the polls because Trump took over & gutted its finances to use for his legal bills, this is why Musk is on the scene. There is a lot of talk of Trumps popularity with young black men, i was listening to a reporter can't remember who, saying they were in Detroit, the biggest city in Michigan with a 78% black population, largest in US in % terms and they said the Republican party was nowhere to be seen. It would't surprise me if Harris' %s with black men are better on election day compared to current polling, not because i don't believe his popularity but because young black men are some of the lowest propensity voters in The US

^

Trump bashing Detroit while speaking in Detroit:
"Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president.”
Trump has bashed Detroit a few more times since then

You make a really solid point about the ground game. It's been outsourced. Rather than have passionate people on the ground, Elon is involved. It's quite disturbing.
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-am...gan-uhaul/

About the polls. It's more about optics from the Trump team. Looking into a few, I get the impression these polls are done to try to make Trump appear up. Some of them (after a lot of digging) are really under representing Women/Minorities. Also there is a financial incentive for promoting Betting Sites (people on X are being paid to, what a shock) It's "Bro" Culture they are after, so gotta appear strong at all times
The foundation of Misinformation Elon Musk is really hyping up all the "fraud" taking place, when the incidents that are happening are from MAGA

I actually do watch some of his rallies. He's a shell of his former self. Cheaping out on venues isn't doing any favors. Showing up late, no enthusiasm, people leaving early as well

There's been a coordinated effort to bash Women voting AT ALL. Fox News and a few Right Wing Influencers want to take away Women's Right to Vote. The "vote behind his back" pitch has them upset

(31-10-2024 19:17 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  Just when you think the Republicans have scored a decisive own-goal with that hate-filled rally at Madison Square Garden…

…Biden scores an even more impressive own-goal by accidentally calling Trump’s supporters “a pile of garbage”.

(And I know that’s not what he intended, but how do you defend it … “he’s just a senile old man”!?)

Own goals this week: 1-1

You would think having a Hate Rally at MSG would have been the final dagger, but Joe Biden gave them a life preserver

MAGA has been waiting for another "Deplorables' moment, and they pounced on it.
Garbage isn't something to be as proud of as Deplorable though

Trump almost fell trying to open the door

Trump:

"They don't want windows. They don't want cows, they don't want anything.
I've always been known for having the biggest windows"

How far are we from seeing a 2nd US Civil War?

It has been an interesting polling cycle for sure.

I’m more of a nerd for the maths of it than the politics tbh, and I can’t remember polling like this in any election since I learned about polling back in 2000.

The polls are almost TOO stable. You tend to always have outliers, which is why organisations like RCP and 538 started tracking polling averages. In a normal cycle, you SHOULD be seeing “weird” polls like +10 Trump or +8 Harris. When you poll 2,000 people in a state of 20 million you are bound to get a skewed sample every once in a while.

But this time, even with 10-15 polls reporting every day, they are overwhelmingly coming out at +/- 1-2% in either direction.

That COULD mean that the race is genuinely that close.

OR it could mean that pollsters are terrified of sticking their neck out. They could be massaging their models, weightings and samples to make sure that they stay close to the prevailing narrative that this race is too close to call.

A huge surprise on election day — in either direction — wouldn’t surprise me at all.

We know they are already putting in the work to call foul if Harris wins, but it's the potential violence that concerns me, it could be so much worse than Jan 6th if he loses. I dread to think what the unhinged one, who is more unstable than four years ago, would say to his supporters. The lack of consequences is also a worry, because that Supreme Court aren't willing to hold him to account for his actions, things are skewed and it is no doubt a very scary time for Americans. Add Faux Noise and Twatter into the mix as well Russian misinformation and well, yeah, not fun times ahead