US Election & Presidency

(03-11-2024 17:57 )skully Wrote:  It'd be lovely to see red states go blue and Trump to be utterly trounced. Don't think we'll be as lucky as that and it'll be closer than everyone wants.

I'm still torn, I want Harris to win, or more accurately, Trump to lose, but the polls are scarily close, and I fear the worst.

On the other hand, I take on board a number of things already mentioned in this thread. Firstly, the polls are almost eerily close, and astonishingly similar. That all seems unlikely in the world of polling, you take multiple random samples of people, what's the likelihood that they will all give such similar and close results, suggesting that perhaps the polling organisations are weighting their results and maybe aren't giving the true picture. Why they would choose to do that is a whole other question.

Add to that, some of the noise coming from the Trump camp, effectively preparing the ground for a loss. Presumably the camps will have access to more realistic un-weighted polling figures, so maybe they see the writing on the wall. Trumps own rhetoric is getting increasingly desperate as the vote approaches, and the ground is being prepared for yet another 'voter fraud' nonsense.

That gives me some hope that actually we may see a more comprehensive victory for common sense than the current polling suggests.
Who knows, maybe we WILL see the National Guard being mobilised, but to round up the Trump camp and put them away for good

Prefarably in a nice padded cell in Alcatraz guarded by a million sharks a paddded cell on the mainland would be like luxury to them Unless anyone has a better prison for them

(04-11-2024 09:19 )munch1917 Wrote:  ….perhaps the polling organisations are weighting their results and maybe aren't giving the true picture. Why they would choose to do that is a whole other question.

It’s an interesting question.

My best guess is that pollsters are businesses who trade on their perceived “accuracy”.

As consumers of polling data, we want as many polls as possible — including the outliers — because we want to add them all up and look at the averages. But if I’m in the business of producing polls, then my business lives or dies by my track record of accurately gauging the market.

Say I run a poll that has Trump up by +6 in Michigan. If I release that poll, when everyone else is saying it’s a dead heat, then I get a lot of short term publicity, which is great. But what if Harris then goes on to win the state by 4? Then I’m the schmuck who missed by 10!

On the other hand, I could put my finger on the scale. Iif I just tweak the modelling to “account” for any anomalies and make it say what everyone else is saying, then I’m pretty safe. Okay, so I was off by 4 — but so were all my competitors.

That’s why everyone has grudging respect for Ann Selzer for releasing the poll that has Harris +3 in Iowa. It’s a huge outlier … but good on her for publishing it anyway.

Barbara Streisand about Donald Trump
"Trump is too old, too unhinged, and too unstable for the most demanding job in the world."

Cruel but fair

She forgot to add that he's a liar, sex offender, insurrectionist and convicted criminal, if anything she was too kind

^any you missed Skully?

Is failed businesssman another?

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(04-11-2024 16:19 )Charlemagne Wrote:  Barbara Streisand about Donald Trump
"Trump is too old, too unhinged, and too unstable for the most demanding job in the world."

Cruel but fair

I think he has enough celebs to hit back for him.

For anyone interested, these are the last prediction models ahead of today’s election:

Economist: …… 50:50
538: ……………… 50:50
Nate Silver: …. 50:50


So… erm… yeah…

Sleep well everyone!

Cue endless legal challenges.........

First result is in, it's a dead heat!

Some small town, with 6 voters, opened the polls at midnight and they all voted, 3 each way, 15 minutes of fame

Interestingly, the beeb mentioned the weighting of the polls and how it basically means we know nothing about how things might actually go.

According to CNN, early voting shows a gender divide of 56-44% lead for woman

You would assume good for Harris but Trumps low propensity male voters are gonna turn out on election day, if your low propensity your not likely to register for early voting