Keir Starmer - and his miserable government

Starmer may have to be a bridge not only between Trump and the EU but also a bridge between Trump and Zelensky if he isn't already.

I gert the feeling that is how many see Starmer's position at present, Snooks what are the potential political risks of doing so?

Rachel already playing the tariff card as an excuse for the oncoming recession

I say 'oncoming', but we're as good as in it already. The last growth figure of 0.1% is really just avoiding it on a technicality. Funny that...

I get feeling this on e will bite deeper than any other recession

Mike Amesbury has announced he will stand down from Parliament triggering the first defensive by-election of Starmer's government. A couple of weeks ago Labour were in a doom spiral and Reform were insurgent, since then Trump's attitude to Ukraine, Nato & European defence and Starmer's response has boosted his approval, whilst Farage's ties to Trump, his lukewarm attitude towards Putin & the issues regarding Lowe have stunted Reform.

Oddschecker currently has Reform at 8/13 & Labour at 7/4, so whilst Reform are still the favourites this announcement has come at Reform's worst moment since Farage became leader to fight the last election

^^^
It'll be an interesting guage of where things are at, though with caveats. Mid term by-elections invariably go against the incumbent party, but as you say, Reform are currently shooting themselves in the foot, so may not be quite so well poised to take advantage. The tories have become pretty much anonymous under their new leader. That may not be a bad thing long term as they try to recover from thier own infighting and traumas from the last government stint, but I'd be surprised to see them make many gains here.

Labour had a 14000 majority here, I'm not convinced Reform can swing that right now. Might be interesting to see if the LibDems can eat into some of the tory vote maybe even take third place from them, that would be a bit of a kicking for the tories

When i looked at Oddschecker it didn't say when those odds were last updated, so i had another look this morning and they are now Reform 8/11 & Labour 11/8.

It will also be interesting to see how tactical voting will play out, The Tories came third with 6756 votes followed by Greens & Lib Dems who had about 5k between them. Green & Lib Dem voters are significantly more likely, though not exclusively, to break for Labour where as with the Tories it is difficult to tell how their voters may go. Turnout is usually low in by-elections & i imagine the median voter may not be enthusiastic about another vote so soon after the general, where as Reform voters sick of the status quo & the two main parties will likely be more motivated by the chance to continue the momentum & deliver a bloody nose to the Labour government. Farage will be keen to show they can win in Labour districts and not just the Tory ones

A combination of greater voter enthusiasm on Reforms account & the couch could see them get in or at least make it tight

Keir Starmer says the benefits/welfare system is "unfair" & "indefensible", what's actually "unfair" & "indefensible" is that disabled people are going to be pretty much the sole target for these cuts to the welfare/benefits budget that are to be announced very soon/imminently along with the sick and vulnerable

What has also made my blood boil is the group of Labour MP's who have said in a letter etc that they have a "moral duty" to do these welfare/benefit cuts

It seems that whoever is in charge thinks that targeting the poor, sick and disabled is fine, they are evil, all of them. There will be blood on their hands.

Well you didn't really think it was going to stop at robbing "rich" Pensioners, did you?