(26-11-2020 01:40 )Rammyrascal Wrote:  Apparently Liverpool with be put in Tier 2

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/liverpool-tier-2-explained-coronavirus-infections-matt-hancock-772673?ITO=msn

Andy Burnham is expecting Greater Manchester in Tier 3 even though cases etc are all falling. some are saying the government want to send a message to Andy Burnham about this is what you get for not cooperating with us. If you had, you’d be in same tier as Liverpool

(25-11-2020 23:30 )Boomerangutangangbang Wrote:  That Graph's, lacking some detail. I assume the figures on the vertical left are deaths/week ? Dunno.

Plus, as has been the case all the way through this pandemic, the estimates by different groups have such a large span, which makes them almost meaningless. I thought that as we gained more understanding of the virus & better data, the various groups estimations would compare more closely. This isn't the case with these estimates.
Doesn't make any sense to me that the governments worse-case scenario is predicting the lowest peak out of the 5 studies, it looks about 700. the next 2 predictions are well beyond double that figure, the following one 3 times & the highest prediction in excess of 4 times. What do you call that one ? The Overly Exaggerated Worser than Worse-Case Scenario.
If is wasn't so serious, it would be laughable.
.

(26-11-2020 12:20 )Rammyrascal Wrote:  Now officially confirmed Liverpool will be in Tier 2, London in tier 2.

(26-11-2020 12:56 )winsaw Wrote:  

(25-11-2020 23:30 )Boomerangutangangbang Wrote:  That Graph's, lacking some detail. I assume the figures on the vertical left are deaths/week ? Dunno.

Plus, as has been the case all the way through this pandemic, the estimates by different groups have such a large span, which makes them almost meaningless. I thought that as we gained more understanding of the virus & better data, the various groups estimations would compare more closely. This isn't the case with these estimates.
Doesn't make any sense to me that the governments worse-case scenario is predicting the lowest peak out of the 5 studies, it looks about 700. the next 2 predictions are well beyond double that figure, the following one 3 times & the highest prediction in excess of 4 times. What do you call that one ? The Overly Exaggerated Worser than Worse-Case Scenario.
If is wasn't so serious, it would be laughable.
.

Yes sorry should have said that's the expected number who die from covid in the left,
Most seam to have discounted the Cambridge curve saying it's to much based on the worst happening all the time,
It seams that the Warwick curve is the closest to the virus actual track at the moment, which I am really hoping is right and we will be down to no covid dieing by April,
Imperial think that Xmas will have a bigger effect on things and will keep the covid in higher numbers for longer before it's natural die off in the summer,
As for the government one no one has a clue how they come up with that lol

(26-11-2020 12:59 )winsaw Wrote:  

(26-11-2020 12:20 )Rammyrascal Wrote:  Now officially confirmed Liverpool will be in Tier 2, London in tier 2.

Proved the regional restrictions where working Liverpool going from the worst to a level 2 there was no need for a national lockdown they just needed to give the regional rules time to work,

(26-11-2020 12:59 )winsaw Wrote:  

(26-11-2020 12:20 )Rammyrascal Wrote:  Now officially confirmed Liverpool will be in Tier 2, London in tier 2.

Proved the regional restrictions where working Liverpool going from the worst to a level 2 there was no need for a national lockdown they just needed to give the regional rules time to work,