(30-09-2020 14:30 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  The polls were no less accurate in 2016 than they have been over the past 50 years. The media has just gotten more dumb and sensationalistic, interpreting a 3-point lead for Clinton as a sure-fire win, when it was well within the margin of error.

I remember 538 on the eve of the election giving Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning. Yes, it was leaning toward Clinton -- and bear in mind that she did win the popular vote by, funnily enough, about 3% -- but a 1 in 3 chance is a real chance.

As it stands, the same forecasters at 538 are giving Biden a 78% chance of winning the election. Trump has an absolute mountain to climb and I can't see him doing it.

Big differences to 2016:

- Too many democrats succumbed to the media narrative that Clinton had it in the bag and stayed home on election day. Less likely to happen this time around.
- Clinton was so hated by Republicans that even those who were embarrassed and disgusted by Trump held their nose and voted for him anyway. Biden doesn't inspire the same type of revulsion.
- Trump didn't have a record to run on. His biggest appeal was that he was the 'outsider'. He's not an outsider anymore and his record in office has been pretty dismal.
- The ranks of 'never Trump' Republicans have swelled in the last four years. If all they do is chip off 2% to 3% of the Republican vote, then Trump doesn't have a prayer.
- Trump's base will stick with him through anything. For all the turbulence of his presidency, his approval rating has been more stable and consistent than any other president in modern times. But it is consistently low -- it never drops below 40% and never goes higher than 45%. In other words, his base is behind him whatever happens -- but his base just isn't big enough to get him reelected. And I don't know where Trump is going to get the other votes he needs.

(30-09-2020 18:42 )skully Wrote:  These debates show just how uneducated Trump is, he always resorts to childish antics.
This man is America's president and may get a second term

Quote:At least when he was running in 2016 he had something to say: build the wall, drain the swap, renegotiate trade deals etc, you can argue how good or genuine these statements were but it gave you some idea of where he stood & what he wanted to do. I watched the whole thing live & I can barely remember anything he actually said. He seemed to just hurl accusations of socialism at Biden which is ridiculous because most Democratic Socialists on twitter hate Biden's guts, ironically Bernie is the only Democratic Socialist that likes Joe.

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  far left fascists.

(30-09-2020 13:57 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  I'm sure Our skully would have jumped at the chance....

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  Actually Clinton did have some support from Republicans. Trump was the one accused of abusing the party he was running on, yet still won.

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  Never Trumpers were at their strongest when he first ran as a candidate. They couldnt complain when up until corona the economy was doing far better than any other Western country.

(01-10-2020 03:49 )Slabhead Wrote:  Trump can get further votes from those insecure about law and order.