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+---- Thread: The State of the UK Union in 2022 (/showthread.php?tid=85435)
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - The Silent Majority - 25-02-2023 01:42
(25-02-2023 00:56 )southsidestu Wrote:(24-02-2023 10:59 )The Silent Majority Wrote: southsidestu, look away now...
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-leadership-contest-poll-of-snp-supporters-puts-kate-forbes-ahead-in-race-to-be-next-first-minister-4038861
That's a poll of voters not members
It is, yes. Nevertheless, for someone who should now be a pariah in a progressive social democratic party, she has her 100 nominations.
I'm not arguing her case, far from it. I just think you're a little naive about the SNP. Outside of the Holyrood bubble, it's not what you think it is.
I'm not saying she'll win either, but her share of the vote will be substantial, I can assure you.
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - dundeered - 25-02-2023 15:06
(25-02-2023 00:56 )southsidestu Wrote:(24-02-2023 10:59 )The Silent Majority Wrote: southsidestu, look away now...
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-leadership-contest-poll-of-snp-supporters-puts-kate-forbes-ahead-in-race-to-be-next-first-minister-4038861
That's a poll of voters not members
Sometimes governments should lead and not follow. Civil rights is one of those issues, woman, African Americans, Gay people suffered for decades waiting public opinion to catch up with what was right. Countries around the world had already done what was right, Spain has done it since Scotland tried, Germany will attempt it soon. As i said trans people are some of the most vulnerable in society, amongst those most likely to contemplate/commit suicide, human beings should not have to wait for public opinion to validate their existence and alleviate the enviroment that makes many of them want to end said existence. The right time to do the right thing is now.
Regan's interview here is excruciating, SM is spot in declaring her The Truss candidate. Interesting that she was introduces by Joanna Cherry who just recently declared that a de facto referendum would kill off independance for a generation: https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/joanna-cherry-de-facto-poll/
One can't help wonder if after 15 yrs of making them a juggernaught, Independance might do to The SNP what Europe, has done to the Tories(1)
Some thoughts from Andrew Neil(2)
(1)The thing is that the SNP has always had two camps of opinion as to how to achieve independence. There is one camp that takes a fundamentalist approach whereby they want independence as quickly as possible regardless of the consequences, this approach is electorally risky. And the other camp believes in a gradualist approach whereby they try to build support for independence bit by bit and increase Scotland’s autonomy bit by bit until independence is achieved, this approach is electorally safer. Based on this and what I have heard from the candidates the SNP would be best advised to elect Hamza Yousaf as leader (even if he has lots of flaws)
(2)Don’t you mean Andrew Marr?
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - southsidestu - 26-02-2023 05:32
True but after 15 yrs of being in power Indy has gone from feeling inevitable to looking like it is a long term practice. That inevitablity has kept the Reganites in check but now that there is a large degree of uncertainty it will likely result in a more fractious enviroment.
Yes, ha ha i did mean Marr
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - southsidestu - 26-02-2023 06:00
(25-02-2023 01:42 )The Silent Majority Wrote:(25-02-2023 00:56 )southsidestu Wrote:(24-02-2023 10:59 )The Silent Majority Wrote: southsidestu, look away now...
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-leadership-contest-poll-of-snp-supporters-puts-kate-forbes-ahead-in-race-to-be-next-first-minister-4038861
That's a poll of voters not members
It is, yes. Nevertheless, for someone who should now be a pariah in a progressive social democratic party, she has her 100 nominations.
I'm not arguing her case, far from it. I just think you're a little naive about the SNP. Outside of the Holyrood bubble, it's not what you think it is.
I'm not saying she'll win either, but her share of the vote will be substantial, I can assure you.
Your absolutley right that The SNP are a big tent party, they need to be if they are to win over 50+1 in a referendum. I remember the days when they used advocate for a Nordic level of public spending with an Irish level of taxation directly appealing to both camps even when the two things are diametrically opposed, reminds me of that Selina Meyer slogan in Armando Ianucci's Veep: Continuity with Change.
We have seen enough things since 2016 not to right anything off in politics, Forbes may yet win, Yousaf is a deeply unpopular character with the state of the NHS & the backlash over the online hate bill. I suppose at this point I should give notice to the other candidate, Hi Ash.
If Forbes has said one thing right in the last week its that Twitter is not the real world, in some ways Forbes would be a shrewd move in trying to appeal to a section of the electorate that they havent always been able to. On the other it risks alienating younger voters which is the base for Independance & would prevent certain risks to the party in that its leader is, on a social/cultural level, moving in the opposite direction of the country.
We'll know in a month
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - dundeered - 26-02-2023 06:03
(26-02-2023 05:32 )southsidestu Wrote: True but after 15 yrs of being in power Indy has gone from feeling inevitable to looking like it is a long term practice. That inevitablity has kept the Reganites in check but now that there is a large degree of uncertainty it will likely result in a more fractious enviroment.
Yes, ha ha i did mean Marr
But, all that any new SNP leader has to do is keep the party unified and continually agitate for independence with an intellectually coherent but simple message that can win support. This approach would at least keep support for independence at 50/50 levels and maintain the SNPs electoral base. Eventually, the arguments they campaign on and present would breakthrough to create a 60/40 or even 70/30 levels of support for independence.
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - The Silent Majority - 26-02-2023 07:59
(26-02-2023 06:00 )southsidestu Wrote: If Forbes has said one thing right in the last week its that Twitter is not the real world, in some ways Forbes would be a shrewd move in trying to appeal to a section of the electorate that they havent always been able to. On the other it risks alienating younger voters which is the base for Independance & would prevent certain risks to the party in that its leader is, on a social/cultural level, moving in the opposite direction of the country.
I said earlier on that Forbes would be the most competent at running the country, and I stand by that. Her views on other things make her unsuitable as a figurehead, but they don't make her incompetent. If the membership vote her in, the Parliamentary party is just going to have to suck it up because she won't fall on her face the way Truss did.
Yes, younger voters are the base for independence is an often repeated trope. But something doesn't add up there either. Since the referendum we have had 9 years worth of supposedly independence leaning youngsters come into the voting system, and 9 years worth of supposedly unionist leaning older voters die off. Yet nothing has changed.
I would say the problem is they can't hold on to the younger voters as they get older, get married, get mortgages, have kids, start businesses etc. All of which is likely to make them more risk averse.
Forbes is the only one of the three who could really change that. She's almost certainly going to be more business friendly than Sturgeon, although that wouldn't be difficult.
Forbes is their best chance at independence but they would have to view it as a long term project and the parliamentary party would have hold their noses long enough for her to achieve it.
Or the party could just implode, who knows.
Yousaf will just be more of the same and things will go nowhere.
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - The Silent Majority - 26-02-2023 11:06
Ash Regan doing a phone interview on the radio this morning. Still flailing about wildly before the phone line went dead due to 'tech issues'.
If I was being cynical, I'd say it was a mercy killing from someone on her team.
If she even has a team
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - The Silent Majority - 27-02-2023 13:49
Oh dear...
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23347953.former-snp-treasurer-interviewed-police-party-fraud-probe/
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - southsidestu - 02-03-2023 16:56
Alex Salmond attempting to throw a spanner into the works of Humza Yousaf's campaign, in an interview with Sky's Beth Rigby, by saying that Yousaf scheduled a meeting on the day of the final vote on same sex marriage after receiving pressure from religious groups
RE: The State of the UK Union in 2022 - The Silent Majority - 02-03-2023 21:38
^ Alex Neil was raging exactly that after Forbes' treatment by the Parliamentary party, but Yousaf denied it.
Awkward...
Eck will be enjoying this though.