The State of the UK Union in 2022

Humza Yousaf response






It was typical of The SNP executive to attempt a media blackout on this hustings, with all the gagging orders they have placed on MPs, staff etc, transparency has never been something they are that fond of.

I found it interesting that in response to the ban Forbes and Regan were forthright in their opposition while Yousaf said he wasn't opposed to the idea but it was up to The National Exec. One could assertain from that that Yousaf is the front runner amongst the members, when you are ahead you have more to lose than to gain from a live debate and vice versa, suggesting why Frobes and Regan were more adamant (so the theory goes anyway).

(02-03-2023 23:46 )southsidestu Wrote:  One could assertain from that that Yousaf is the front runner amongst the members,

Yousaf is the executive's preferred candidate. Just depends if the members do as they're told.

If Regan is trailing and pulls out before the vote, I'm pretty sure she'll endorse Forbes, not Yousaf.

If Forbes was ahead she probably wouldn't of been as strongly in favor of the debate as she was, as she would of been the candidate with the most to lose, like Cameron 2010 vs 2015

Regan backing Forbes makes the most sense as they share the same view on GRRB and Yousaf has been pretty weak on Independance. Forbes hasn't been as nearly strong as Regan but thats because she has completely lost touch with reality & Forbes is a more astute politician

SNP candidate Kate Forbes makes a pitch for First Minister by pointing out how terrible the country has performed under the governance of, checks notes, The SNP.




This has been a party political broadcast by every other party in Scotland.

Echoes of The Conservative Party leadership election, when you have been in government for so long you end up owning all thats bad. Whilst Forbes is not as batshit as Truss or Regan there is an element of Truss in this clip in that she lays out that the country has been as mess under The SNP and that the answer is to continue to have that party in government.

Two polls one for The FT & one for Channel 4 news show that Forbes is the favourite amongst Scottish voters but Yousaf is the favourite among SNP voters. I'd go out on a limb and say that would probably suggest Yousaf is the favourite with members as its likely that SNP members would reflect SNP voters but to a larger extent.

I may be wrong because the Truss/Sunak election saw the opposite of that & since SNP members are mostly middle aged men they might be more receptive to Forbes fiscal centrism and place less stock on social issues like same sex marriage and abortion. That being said the other left wing parties are much the same in the make up of their membership and Labour gave us Jeremy Corbyn

Forbes actions would suggest that Yousaf is the front runner, her forthrightness on calling for the debates and the clip above. You don't go all out attack on your opponet & risk trashing the reputation of the party in government, burning the establishment in the process if you are ahead.

Which means its perfectly set up for me to be wrong and have egg on my face.

It would be amazing to see how a Forbes leadership would pan out, with many if the party's senior figures not only backing Yousaf but publically criticisng her stance on same sex marriage. Mhairi Black was asked by journalist Marie Le Conte for The Bunker podcast whether the party would split if Forbes was leader and she replied "honestly I don't know, let's wait and see" which is a big statement especially given Black is now SNP's Westminster deputy leader.

Regardless of the winner, they will have an uphill battle with the public. In the FT poll whilst the favourite amongst Scottish voters, Forbes was still polling below 30% (Yousaf below 20) and in the C4 poll 1 in 3 Scottish voters said none or don't know, thats with Regan added into the mix as well so neither of the two frontrunners able to establish even a plurality of Scottish voters

(09-03-2023 13:01 )southsidestu Wrote:  Two polls one for The FT & one for Channel 4 news show that Forbes is the favourite amongst Scottish voters but Yousaf is the favourite among SNP voters. I'd go out on a limb and say that would probably suggest Yousaf is the favourite with members as its likely that SNP members would reflect SNP voters but to a larger extent.

It's a single transferrable vote though. If nobody gets over 50% of the vote the one with the lowest vote is eliminated and their votes will go to the voters second choice on the ballot paper.

I would guess Regan is most likely to be eliminated. And I would also guess the majority of Regan voters would have Forbes as second choice.

I would say Yousaf has to make over 50% of the first choice votes, or he's stuffed.

Would this mean he would have to call a snap election or would that be too risky?

I'd be surprised if Yousaf did call a snap election.

Its hard to tell because we have so little data on SNP membership but the Ipsos Channel 4 poll when looking at SNP voters had Yousaf at 33%, Forbes 32% and Regan at 10%. Again this is just my assumption but if Forbes was only slightly behind Yousaf she wouldn't be taking the risk in undermining the SNP's record in governmemt in her attacks on him.

We also don't know why the people who are backing Regan are backing Regan. It might be because of The GRRB or her forthright stance on Independance or an entirely different reason.

Its also the fact that despite a recent drop off in opinion, Sturgeon remains a largely popular figure in the party and Yousaf being presented as the continuity candidate would work well with the base & the large number of don't knows as it did for Truss.

Prob be best interest to go early before the GE a labour victory in the GE would prob mean a huge swing in any Scottish elections

Be interesting if Hamza won and prob piss off the Gammons with half of the elected leaders of the UK and NI being of Asian descent

A new poll by Panelbase has Forbes leading Yousaf amongst all Scottish voters by 33% to 18%, with 10% for Regan & 36% don't knows.

Amongst SNP voters Forbes has a much reduced lead of 42-38%

Amongst all Yes voters Forbes has a lead of 42-37%

Amongst No voters Forbes leads 69-19%

Amongst Remain voters 47-36%

Amongst Leave voters 77-11%

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03...l.html?m=1

If the figures from this one poll, which as you can see was commissioned by a blogger though Panelbase are a legit company, was reflective of the country it seems pretty clear that if the SNP are to gain a strong consensus for Indy they will need to pivot to the centre. Can they do that with the Sturgeon continuity candidate ?