US Election & Presidency

It’s polling season! My favourite time of the year

On Favourable versus Unfavourable, both candidates are ‘net’ Unfavourable. It’s a South Parkian choice between a douche and a turd.

BUT…

Trump’s post-assassination attempt / post-convention ‘surge’ seems to have levelled out — at least for now. He was consistently at -12%, then surged to -8.5% and has remained stuck there since the convention. It’ll be interesting to see if his live-streamed bromance with Elon Musk does anything to change that.

Kamala Harris’s surge has been more impressive. On the day Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, her net favourability score was -16.5%. Today, she stands at -3.6% and it seems to be creeping higher every day. Assuming that she too gets the traditional post-convention ‘bounce’, then it could turn positive by the end of the month.

That’s all good the news for the Democrats.

The bad news is that both national and swing state election polls (i.e. “who will you vote for” rather than “what you think of…”) are still showing what is effectively a 50/50 toss-up. Since presidential polls skewed a couple of points to the Left in both 2016 and 2020, you’d have to conclude that Trump still has the edge.

But it’s a genuine race now — it won’t be the blowout that Biden would have experienced.

I just did a poll check, as it’s the middle of the Democratic convention, so the latest polls reflect opinions up to, but not including, any convention effect.

Harris is at +2.9% at a national level. If you’re looking for positives: almost all recent polls give Harris the lead, including the latest from a famously red-leaning pollster who has Harris up by 2 points.

But everything else points to a race that’s too close to call…

In the rust-belt, she is creeping above +3.0% in Michigan and Wisconsin, which is starting to feel like safe ground. But in the key state of Pennsylvania, it is still a toss-up with Harris at +1.4%. There are many who’d argue that the winner of Pennsylvania will win the election, so this still suggests its a very, very tight race.

There is less than a point between them in sun-belt battlegrounds like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. If money was on the line and the election were tomorrow, I would bet those all go Trump’s way.

In terms of approval ratings, Harris’s surge appeared to have levelled out at -2.4%. A huge increase on where she started, but the momentum has slowed and she’s still underwater. It would need to be a great convention to get her to a place where she’s more Favourable than Unfavourable.

Still better than Trump, mind you, who has gone in the wrong direction since I last checked. He’s now at -9.4%. I’m sure he’s not losing sleep over that, however. His favourability ratings have been around that level since 2016, and he still managed to win one election and just narrowly lose a second. There are more than enough people who “don’t like him” but “will vote for him”.

In summary … flip a coin!

I watched last night's DNC speech by Barack Obama on You Tube earlier today. His mastery of oratory is matched by his nobility and integrity of purpose. The sort of leader I wish this country could have had for all eternity.

Some key aspects of his speech I include below.

"America’s central story: a story that says, “We are all created equal. All of us endowed with certain inalienable rights. That everyone deserves a chance. That even when we don’t agree with each other, we can find a way to live with each other. That’s Kamala’s vision. That’s Tim’s vision. That’s the Democratic Party’s vision. And our job over the next 11 weeks is to convince as many people as possible to vote for that vision.

Now, it won’t be easy. The other side knows it’s easier to play on people’s fears and cynicism. It always has been. They will tell you that government is inherently corrupt, that sacrifice and generosity are for suckers, and since the game is rigged it’s okay to take what you want and just look after your own. That’s the easy path."

"Kamala and Tim understand that when everybody gets a fair shot, we are all better off. They understand that when every child gets a good education, the whole economy gets stronger. When women are paid the same as men for doing the same job, all families benefit. They understand that we can secure our borders without tearing kids away from their parents. Just like we can keep our streets safe while also building trust between law enforcement and the communities they serve and eliminating bias that will make it better for everybody.
Donald Trump and his well-heeled donors, they don’t see the world that way. For them, one group’s gains is necessarily another group’s loss."

"To make progress on the things we care about, the things that really affect people’s lives, we need to remember that we’ve all got our blind spots and contradictions and prejudices. And that if we want to win over those who aren’t yet ready to support our candidates, we need to listen to their concerns and maybe learn something in the process.

After all, if a parent or grandparent occasionally says something that makes us cringe, we don’t automatically assume they’re bad people. We recognize that the world is moving fast, that they need time and maybe a little encouragement to catch up. Our fellow citizens deserve the same grace we hope they’ll extend to us."

"We live in a time of such confusion and rancour, with a culture that puts a premium on things that don’t last: money, fame, status, likes. We chase the approval of strangers on our phones. We build all manner of walls and fences around ourselves, and then we wonder why we feel so alone. We don’t trust each other as much because we don’t take the time to know each other. And in that space between us, politicians and algorithms teach us to caricature each other and troll each other and fear each other."

The degree of awareness, compassion, compromise and understanding in these words from Obama are what all of us should aspire to.
No matter our colour, creed, background or inherent belief systems people, society and government all have a role to play in looking out for one another. To help each other, inspire each other and yes...love each other too.
As humans. Let's not treat people as numbers to leave them feeling left out.
Let nobody feel left out. Exclusion harms. It divides. It creates ill feeling. And by virtue of all that it denies true democracy of which Obama speaks.
When the best in humanity steps forward it listens without interrupting. It clarifies concerns and understanding in a spirit of mutual respect. It seeks to find ways to bridge gaps and build consensus.
That is the America Obama craves and the Britain I wish we had.

It was a great speech.

Bettered only by the one that came before … by Michelle Obama. She really blew the doors off the place.

What are these two like around the dinner table?



“Michelle, I ask you now, with the same hope and conviction that propels our shared journey … to pass the potatoes!”

“Barack, I pass these potatoes onto you, knowing that even in this modest gesture we honour the values that bind us as a family and a nation.”

^

America elects a Lawyer who is married to another Lawyer and they get the Obamas.

The UK does the same and we got Tony & Cherie fucking Blair....

I daresay we will be looking at a US election that probably once more come down to one state....

But my question is this - is America finally ready for a woman as US President? When you think about how many of our PM's have beeen women

(21-08-2024 21:51 )Tumble_Drier Wrote:  America elects a Lawyer who is married to another Lawyer and they get the Obamas.

The UK does the same and we got Tony & Cherie fucking Blair....

I bet they did much of that in No.10 Must have kept Gordown Brown awake at night a lot

(22-08-2024 06:57 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  I daresay we will be looking at a US election that probably once more come down to one state....

But my question is this - is America finally ready for a woman as US President? When you think about how many of our PM's have beeen women

lets hope she is a thatcher not a truss or may

and not like thatcher in so many ways