RE: whos gonna win the premier league 10/11
Long post, be warned...
Predicted Top Four:
1. Chelsea
2. Spurs (by a large gap from Chelsea, but still second)
3. Man City
4. Man Utd
First of all, the reasons the top four will look slightly different from normal this year, IMO. (I could be wrong on this. I've got a good record with picking individual match results, a bit rubbish with whole season trends)
Chelsea: They've lost no-one they can't live without, a couple of fringe players and an ageing midfield shuttler, brought in an underrated forward playmaker, and one or two other signings are sure to follow. Chelsea are nailed on favourites for me, considering they have the nucleus of the team that just won it still in place and will add fresh blood before the season starts. No-one will overtake them this season.
Spurs: Yes, everyone will laugh because Spurs haven't finished second in god alone knows how long. But do you know what? With a trio of central defenders who actually stay relatively fit (Dawson, Bassong & Kaboul), some good full backs, one of the strongest midfields in the league and a top notch strike force, Spurs are very well placed indeed. Add in the confidence gained from last season's run in and Harry's nous and man-management skills, then you have the recipe for something special.
Man City: Man City have a hugely talented squad, but once again too many changes are going to unsettle things. It looks like one of the club's best players of the season last year is leaving (Bellamy), and with the additions of Toure, Silva, Boateng and Kolarov to bed into the side, things will be disjointed and choppy again. Mancini's well noted reluctance to go for the jugular when City are on top may also cost them vital points again. 11/12 will be the season they challenge for the title, for me.
Man Utd: Last season's close finish may have papered over the cracks, but United are looking like a spent force so far as winning the league goes, for the next couple of seasons at a minimum. Vidic seeming to confirm his commitment is a massive boost, but with Hargreaves breaking down yet again the midfield looks very tired and flabby. Carrick seems to be a shadow of what he was, Scholes and Giggs can't carry on forever and I think this season will be the one where age catches up with them, Fletcher is tireless but lacks real creativity, while Gibson still has a long way to go and Park is vastly superior out wide. There are issues at full back as well, with Brown notably prone to injury, Neville ageing hard and Rafael still being very green, although showing signs of the player he might become. On the left, things are even worse. Evra (best left-back in the world, for my money, despite what happened at the WC) is all there is in that position. O'Shea isn't very good, Fabio is perpetually injured and there's very little else to work with in that position. Centre back should be OK, but up front there may be problems if Rooney gets injured, or ends up out of sorts because of what happened in South Africa. If Berba or Owen come good, things will be OK, but somehow I can't see them doing it; Owen because of fitness issues and Berba because his natural game doesn't suit United's current mode of play. Hernandez is going to take a while to settle, so it could be a season of fighting for third and fourth place, for United. The wings are the only place United look genuinely strong, if a little short on numbers.
Now, why won't the others be in there.
Arsenal: Fabregas is why Arsenal won't be there. After all this crap with Barcelona, he's going to be unsettled (If he's still there, come the window closing, of course.). The other players are going to be unsettled by it all, and lacking a true leader no-one will be able to pull them together on the pitch. Once December and January roll around, the Fabregas business will start up again meaning more disruption. As always, there are questions about the durability and defensive solidity of their midfield, as well. The signings and reported targets so far are doing nothing to answer those questions.
Liverpool: Liverpool will look a lot more solid and consistent under Hodgson. Solidity is what Hodgson does, but a lot depends on how the star names respond to his training methods. Endless situational drills can alienate some players, especially those who think that playing in their own role is more important than what's best for the team (I'm looking at Gerrard, Torres and Carragher, here.). If his stock is high enough to get these players to work with him and his methods, Liverpool might sneak into the top four. If not, another Europa finish.
Villa: Villa just can't afford to build the kind of strength in depth they need to push for a sustained challenge on anything except the Europa League places. They're excellent at the back, certainly, but the midfield lacks numbers and the striking department is woefully understocked. They'll start well, but as injuries and suspensions kick in, that brilliant creative midfield will be regularly broken up, meaning they'll tail off again after Christmas. Scoring goals will also be a problem. Neither Agbonlahor or Heskey are prolific, while Carew is excellent in bursts, but lacks consistency. Without some pretty substantial investment, particularly up front and in central midfield, progression is next to impossible for Villa.
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